THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Guys who leave thigh-high, middle of the plate fastballs and can’t throw their breaking pitch for strikes? God, I want the Red Sox to see him more often.

I mean, if you look at his stuff, he threw 4 offspeed pitches for strikes through the first 3 innings (and in those 3 innings, he threw 56 pitches).

And it’s not like he’s trotting out an overpowering fastball: it was 92 and he had to throw it for strikes because the other stuff wasn’t working.

Anyway, more Ponson please. Talk about the cure for more Boston / Manny drama.

I don’t think many scouts would disagree with you about Ponson, actually.  I’d suggest that Ponson keeps getting jobs because major league GMs are remarkably risk averse, and signing a guy with a “proven track record” of past success for the league minimum is criticism proof. 

If he sucks, it’s easy to blame the player and not take any heat.  After all, he had a track record, and he underperformed.  If you put a kid from Triple-A out there who fans/media have never heard of, and he gets bombed, then it’s the GMs fault for putting a kid on the roster who obviously wasn’t a major league talent. 

I don’t think that Ponson keeps getting jobs because scouts like his stuff - I think Ponson keeps getting jobs because GMs like his stats, even if they were accumulated from 2003 and before.  The track record is seducing to someone trying not to get fired.

I’d suggest that Ponson keeps getting jobs because major league GMs are remarkably risk averse, and signing a guy with a “proven track record” of past success for the league minimum is criticism proof.

I’m sorry I don’t buy that.  I rail on GM’s mercilessly, but they are not complete idiots.  Even of they know nothing about ERCs or FIPs or DIPS, they can easily see this:

04 5.30
05 6.22
06 6.25
07 6.93

I don’t buy that at all.  They MUST look at those numbers, hold their nose, and ask their scouts, “Well, what do you guys think of this guy?” If they did not get some kind of positive response like, “I don’t know for sure, but he looks OK to me,” there is NO WAY they are signing him and letting him pitch for a contending team. No way.

Not with those ERA’s for 4, going on 5, years.

My point is that beyond the extremes, a scout cannot tell a crappy pitcher from a mediocre one, unless they throw 87 and can’t hit the side of a barn.  I’ll also bet that with a 92-93 fastball and a decent curve, like Ponson, on some days he looks like an ace. If a scout happens to catch him on a day or two like that, they give him a thumbs up.

My other point is that this mantra that all teams are hollering now, “We combine scouting and stats,” is a joke. For some teams at least.

You don’t need to scout a guy like Ponson.  You look at his stats for the last 4-5 years as well as his history (old, oft-injured, oft-overweight, oft-drinking problem, head case, etc.) and you KNOW that he is bad.  If you watch him and he looks good, you best forget that you ever saw him.  Seriously.

ANY pitcher can look great in any one day or two (or three or four) and ANY pitcher can look like crap in an one day, two, or three, even to a trained eye!

I am not talking about a guy with a 96 mph heater and a hammer of course, like a Joba or Lincecum.  I am talking about a guy with a 91 or 92 fastball and decent off-speed or even good off-speed pitch or two.  There is A LOT more to successful pitching than those things, and you CAN’T discern them from scouting a pitcher for a game or 5. 

THAT is why teams sign pitchers like Ponson and why Brandon Backe gets to pitch in the majors, or Marquis or Suppan get large contracts. Or even why Van Benschoten gets 80 innings or so to prove that he probably CAN’T pitch in the major leagues, at least for now (he also has a 92 fastball and good off-speed pitch, like hundreds of other pitchers, good and bad).

MGL, you ARE saying they are idiots, one way or another.  Either they’re risk averse idiots like David mentions, or they’re idiots who put too much faith in their scouts.

I am an idiot when it comes to certain things and a genius when it comes to other things.  So are we all.  So when I say something like that (GM’s are idiots), take it for what it is worth (and consider the source ).

Anyway, how is this “risk averse?” And how does that help a team?

Yes, you may SAY that you combine scouting and sabermetrics to make decisions, but if you sign someone like Ponson because your scouts say that he is “OK” (and I don’t really know if that is the case), then you are of full of B.S.

Hey MGL, here’s a radical idea - why don’t you pick up the phone / send an email and ask Brian Cashman directly why he is such an “idiot” ?

It’s really inexplicable that teams still pay Ponson to pitch for them.  The guy had one, maybe two seasons (being generous, although I guess he was a good “innings eater” early in his career) which were good in his whole career, and those days have been gone since 2003 (if they ever existed).  He isn’t a guy with “great stuff” that a team would take a shot on hoping he can harness it, finally.  He’s had myriad off the field issues; he’s not being picked up because he’s a “good guy” or a “good clubhouse guy”.  He’s appeared in one postseason game in his career, so the Yankees (or another contending club) aren’t picking him up for his “veteran leadership” or experience.  I don’t get what he has to recommends him as a major league pitcher AT ALL.

Hey MGL, here’s a radical idea - why don’t you pick up the phone / send an email and ask Brian Cashman directly why he is such an “idiot” ?

I don’t understand this.  Is that sarcastic, as in, “He is smart in signing and pitching every 5 days Ponson and he knows something that I don’t?”

Is it serious?  If it is, why would I want to ask him that?  Do you have his e-mail address or phone number?  I don’t?

Do you have anything to contribute to this forum other than that?

Why would someone actually read this forum (which is a serious sabermetric (and occasionally miscellaneous) one, and then chime in with a comment like that.

If you were just making a joke, I apologize and joke accepted.  Not every post has to be serious or substantive.