THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

But if Jeter swings at fastballs down the middle 100% of the time, then pitcher won’t throw it there anymore. Think of the future game theory implications!

Just stumbled over here and saw this…

I was horrified that he took that 2-0 pitch.  It was going to be a better pitch to hit than a 2-1.  I thought that’s exactly the zone in which he’d be looking for a pitch to drive (the 2-0).

Horrified or not, the question is whether he should have been looking to get on base any way he can, more or less, with no outs, even though he is the tying run, or should he have been looking for a pitch to drive, even at 2-0.

Joe Sheehan says the take is clearly the correct strategy for Jeter even though he offers no evidence or even a discussion.  I think he should be looking for a pitch to drive at 2-0.  Obviously if he knew 100% that the pitch was going to be a fastball right down the middle, swinging at it would be better than going to 2-1, but by taking all the way, he avoids (accidentally) swinging at some pitches that are not fastballs right down the middle.

I think Joe is wrong, which wouldn’t be the first time, and even if he isn’t, I’m not sure how he can be so sure of himself.

I remember Howard Stern saying how he became “Howard Stern”.

He was listening to the radio, and someone called in, and the host told him how to fix his storm door.  Then someone else called in, and the host told him how to solve his marriage troubles.

The radio host was a schmoe.  But Howard realized that if you ACT like you know everything, that you are an expert, or a “team of experts”, then everyone will come flocking to you.

That’s the sad reality.  Just watch around you, be it with BPro or some other venues, like “Mad Money”, and you will see that if someone acts like an expert, he’ll be treated as one.

Rob Neyer is a breath of fresh air among them all.