THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

I turned it on just in time to catch the end of the host’s introduction to WPA.  They just had Dave Appelman on to talk about them, and now they are talking to their desk guys who were former players.

I thought it was solid. Nomar seemed to completely ignore Ravech’s introduction video and the interview with David Appleman when he said (and I’m paraphrasing): “They don’t capture everything like what a hit in the 6th inning knocks out the SP is worth” when they just clearly went over WPA (never mind the notion that you’d like that starter to stay in there as long as possible given how much worse they fair the more times they go through a lineup).

But, Aaron Boone seemed receptive and I liked Olney chiming in with some agents “complaining” that their clients are getting the same offer for the most part from numerous suitors due to teams moving closer and closer in how they are statistically evaluating a player.

I liked this better than the WPA discussion that was on MLB Network a couple months ago with Rosenthal, Reynolds and someone else (his name is escaping me).

Mike/#2: It was Tom Verducci.

I don’t doubt that ESPN did a decent job. It’s not going to be a thorough discussion, and some of the ex-players will always be skeptical or unwilling to accept (I can’t imagine John Kruk talking about this kind of stuff). But Olney seems like he is at least interested whenever he mentions saber-stats, and ESPN’s inclusion of the TMI blog can only mean they are more interested in either:

a) improving their baseball coverage by including this sort of information

or at least

b) reaching out to the saber audience so they can get more money.

If a) happens as a consequence of b), I can’t complain.

There are parts of ESPN that is very receptive to what we do, while others are still in the head-scratching phase. 

We have it easy here because we’re at the leading edge, and we only have to bring along others who are near that edge.

ESPN has it tougher.  From that perspective, let’s take it that ESPN is the 10th grade teacher, who has students from the 7th grade to PhDs.

Michael/3, thanks for Verducci’s name and I agree with your second part. Expanded coverage from the biggest sports network around covering the things we all love here—for whatever reasons they are doing it—is a good thing. I don’t envy the road ahead for ESPN if they are serious about educating their general baseball-watching audience (and I’m sure they are). I mean, my brother still doesn’t even grasp the idea of OBP vs. batting average and why one is better than the other. So, it’s an arduous road to say the least.

I wonder how much can be done to actively develop internal champions at those organizations.  It sounds like they already exist at MLB, but I wonder if it’s just the fantasy/stat guys (Schwartz in particular) who are advocating at MLBAM.

I have to say ESPN is doing really great work with advanced stats. Law and Neyer do it at every turn, and most of the other writers have written features about UZR or +/-.

One of the great things they’ve done is put the content in places where you can opt in or opt out. You can go to the MLB page and read a feature by Kurkjian or Crasnick or you can look at the TMI/Neyer blogs. There is no real tension between the two. I still think the game broadcasts will be BA/HR/RBI/OBP but as long as steps are being taken then who am I to complain. Kudos to ESPN for making SI, Fox, and the various other mainstream sports outlets look old-fashioned. Kudos to ESPN for integrating Fangraphs, BA, BP, BTB and Tango into the fold. Honestly I have very little to complain about w/r/t to ESPN. MLBNetwork would be wise to do something similar.

I just got in the newest ESPN the Magazine today. An article on an AB between Peavy and Ethier has a section for PitchF/X data. And their MLB preview includes a section using ZiPS projections--simming the season 100 times for average wins, pie charts on % of the time winning the division, and three players in each division who will do better or worse than last year using ZiPS projections.

“The Mag” came around on advanced stats a few months ago, when they used numbers from Football Outsiders for the NFL, had an issue with UZR/defensive metrics on the front page, and continually use sabermetric numbers in features.

ESPN.com is coming around to sabermetrics now, what with the new TMI blog and their partnership with BP and Fangraphs (and the Hot Stove U articles, for the most part).

Will ESPN, the TV network, come through? I hope so.

Thanks for the mention, Zach - I didn’t realize that the Mag was already out until you said something! (I haven’t received mine yet).

This whole “Stat Week” has been pretty good.  They had John Dewan on yesterday, Appelman today.  They were scrolling Runs Saved and UZR on the bottom line during the show.  While the ESPN “personalities” aren’t quite on board with everything being presented, it’s clear that the crew behind the scenes is starting to push it pretty hard. 

I like the TMI blog.  Great contributors all around.  Unfortunately it’s not visible to those without Insider subscriptions.  For me, ESPN Insider has become one of those subscriptions worth paying for.