THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

You did pick some beauties.  Although I don’t have Eyre rated that badly at all as compared to the rest.  Plus Cormier started like 40% of his total IP.  The rest were primarily relievers.  I originally voted for Cormier, as did most of the voters, but since he started so many games, I have to switch to Gosling.

I have Eyre and Stokes like 1 run worse than an average reliever.  The rest are closer to 1.5.  As I always say, a replacement pitcher in my mind is only a run to 1.2 runs worse than average, so these guys are mostly worse than replacement.  It is actually amazing that Cormier got to start so many games.  Why is that?

I tried to stick to relievers, but when I saw how many HR Cormier allowed, and how incredibly bad his ERA was last year, I couldn’t pass him up.  16 HR on 56 hits last year?  I don’t even think Pujols hits HR at that rate.

I had a few other relievers that I picked, but then saw they barely pitched in 2007.  I’ll be interested to see if these guys will even be around in 2009, and how much they’ll pitch in 08.

Cormier sucks, but does he suck as much as the other three put together, or did you just forget to randomize answers?

Congratulations Lance Cormier, on being voted the worst pitcher in MLB, earning over 50% of the 4-man ballot.

Out of all pitchers in their mid-to-late 20s who has been given a fair chance in MLB, you’ve failed as a starter and as a reliever.  Your numbers as a reliever:
BA OBP SLG
.285 .387 .441

Your OBP is 50 points above NL relievers of that time period, and your SLG is 30 points above.  Relievers, as a group, are not good.  And in the inferior league, too.

And as a starter:
BA OBP SLG
.328 .395 .612

Compared to the NL starters, your OBP is 60 points above, and your SLG is 170 points above.  The pitching equivalent of Albert Pujols.  As great as Pujols feels and as great as fans feel when they see Pujols, your performance is the exact opposite of that.

Be thankful that you somehow managed to find two teams to let you face 1117 batters, and pay you over a million dollars. 

On the plus side, we all wish we were just like you.  And you are a hero to all the minor leaguers who never got the chance.

Running a Markov on those hitting lines:
http://www.tangotiger.net/markov.html

6.5 Runs allowed as reliever
8.8 Runs allowed as starter

That is so far above the replacement levels that I use (about 30% higher), that is incredibly shocking that he could have pitched so much.

Can someone give me the scouting report on him?  He must have (had) incredible promise to be allowed to perform as bad as he did.

On Nov 30, 2007 (post 4 above), the Readers of The Book Blog chose Lance Cormier as the worst under-30 pitcher in MLB.

The very next day:
http://www.ajc.com/wireless/content/sports/braves/stories/2007/12/01/cormier_1202.html

The Braves dropped pitcher Lance Cormier from their 40-man roster Saturday…

Congratulations guys, you picked the winner.