THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Twas I who expressed surprise that one switched call per game adds up to ~ 20 runs per season. Great explanation...thank you!

Here is a link for the value per count:

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/02/writing_about_t.php

Here’s an alternate version ... I really need to update this ... http://www.cubsfx.com/2009/06/updating-linear-weight-values-by-count.html

And a great piece by Craig Burley:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-importance-of-strike-one-part-two/

It varies depending on what you’re looking at too.

The basic run value of switching from a ball to a strike is .16 but because umpires “miss” at different rates at different counts, the true value of an umpire “miss” is around .146 runs.

Finally, if you just look at called pitches close to the edge of the zone it’s .140 runs.

See here: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/4/24/459913/a-strike-is-a-strike-right#

and here:
http://blog.stealingfirst.com/2008/05/01/revisiting-the-run-value-of-switching-a-ball-to-a-strike/

Also, Phil Birnbaum wrote a great piece as well about 5 years ago.  Hopefully he’ll come around and tell us which issue.

Phil: a table of contents for the site would be pretty cool…

By the way, we can jsut use 0.15 runs as the standard.  If we’re talking about say 150 called pitches, then saying .14 runs per pitch means 21 runs overall, and saying .16 runs means 24 runs.

Given the uncertainty level to begin with, not to mention the differing values by count, then it’s no big deal what you really use.  You’ll still get a similar answer.

If you analyze a PA by run values for every pitch, you come away with the conclusion that a batter should swing at all strikes and take all the balls. While the latter might be generally true, it’s hard to make a serious case that the former is. The most ‘evolved’ batters seem to tailor their approach to an overall PA viewpoint instead of an individual pitch viewpoint, which means that they strategically choose to take a certain proportion of strikes.

The easiest example is the first pitch. IIRC, the pitcher throws a strike 50 to 60% of the time. Yet the batter only swings 25 to 30% of the time.

Now, if you could further divide strikes into categories of pitcher strikes, average strikes, and fat pitches, with attention to the count, plus obvious balls and borderline balls--you might have a good foundation for evaluating pitch-by-pitch.