THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Terrific work as usual. And just how historically bad is the Devil Rays defense?

Here are the team totals without comment. This is just the sum of the “Total Runs” column.

CHC 44 --- COL 39 --- NYN 35
SD 26 --- OAK 20 --- TOR 17
SF 16 --- KC 14 --- MIN 14
LAA 11 --- CWS 9 --- DET 9
BAL 8 --- STL 8 --- PHI 7
PIT 0 --- NYY -1 --- TEX -4
ARZ -5 --- CLE -6 --- MIL -7
ATL -9 --- LAD -17 --- WSH -18
HOU -26 --- BOS -28 --- SEA -31
CIN -32 --- FLA -37 --- TB -68

Doesn’t really matter right now, but when trades happen, I don’t think MGL splits the data out.  Abreu, for example, I think only had one record with the Yanks/Phils.

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I fully expect this comment, so in order to save time, just say
x=name
y=adjective

Standard Comment:
“Man, this UZR is so {y}.  I mean, look at {x}. Anybody believe that? Back to the drawing board for this {y}.”

Why is JD Drew listed with Pit?

Drew is listed with Boston in my file.  There is a small bug in my program that gives some players a few chances on another team.  Drew has a few with SF.  Just ignore that.  Maybe a few others too.

Betancourt has a terrible UZR again.  I am confounded as to why.  There really are few problems if any with infielders.  Could he really be a good fielder with bad UZR’s?  I am starting to think he is one of those fielders who is considered excellent but really is not.  At some point in time, the numbers (UZR) don’t lie (figuratively speaking).  At least with time there will be fewer and fewer fielders whose numbers lie (remember that UZR or ANY statistical measure in baseball is merely a sample of a player’s true talent with a standard error such that x% of the measures will be “wrong” at any point in time with x decreasing with the # of chances for each fielder).  It is possible that SOME fielder’s or fielders’ numbers do lie at any point in time though.  Which is why scouting/observation is important with defense.

For what its worth, Mariner fans are in agreement with UZR on Betancourt this year - he’s having a bad year with the glove.  Not just the ridiculous throwing errors, either - he’s not getting balls that he got in the past, he’s gained a little weight, and he simply hasn’t looked very good defensively this year. 

He looked significantly better defensively, from a subjective perspective, the last two years.  This year, you won’t find a Mariner fan who thinks he’s been an asset with the glove.

DC, interesting.

knowing this about betancourt, the obvious question would be how different his UZR is between last year and this year (to the same all-star midpoint). The mariners rotation has changed a little, but it should still tell us something. If his UZR is about the same, then maybe he’s been the same all along, only tricking the eye somehow.

Also, 75% of that Colorado infield looks damn good. I remember when Kaz Matsui was a shortstop for the Mets, his defense was much maligned, but moved to second in Colorado, he looks quite good.

Drew has a few chances with SF?

What’s going on, Giants are bringing in hired help to cover for the old man in left?

I wonder if the CO players are that good, or if home fielders in CO have some unusual advantage that elevates their UZRs when compared to visiting players.  I would think that the more idiosyncratic the ballpark, the more that home fielders would gain an edge, and CO certainly fits the bill.  MGL: have you ever compared CO infielders’ aggregate home and away UZRs to see if the gap is unusually large?

Huh—my security code is “wife97.” Your blog software must think I’m Rudy Giuliani.

I think I am using pre-serious-humidor park adjustments for Coors, which is part of the problem.  I have to check.  Before serious use of the humidor last year, and certainly before humidor use at all (last year they started keeping balls in the humidor longer), balls flew through the IF, so the park adjustments were quite extreme.  That is probably no longer the case, and I have to update my park adjustments at Coors.

Betancourt was -6 runs total last year in 147 games, and -1 runs total in 48 games in 05.

I should say “the problem” rather than “part of the problem.”

I’ll second Dave Camerons points, Yuni has looked quite a bit slower this year.

Does UZR show Mark Loretta to be the worst defensive SS in recent memory?  Or is it just my impression along with ESPN’s zone rating that shows that?  I actually heard the National’s announcers in a game this week comment that the Astros really didn’t lose anything defensively with Loretta subbing for the injured Everett.  Can you beat that?

From 2002-May 31 of 2007, Mark Loretta was +3 UZR runs per 150 GP better than the league average 2B.  That would make him a slightly below average fielding SS.

Nobody compares to Everett’s fielding, except for Pokey Reese.  (And, interestingly, they are equals as hitters.)

I see Loretta at -5 UZR in only 16 defensive games.  He’s probably not quite that bad, but I’m sure if he was allowed to play short all year he’d be worse than Derek Jeter.

I’ve often wondered what UZL thought about the great SS swap of ‘05 where Eckstein went to St Louis from LA, Renteria went to Boston from St Louis and Cabrerra went to St Louis from LA. Anyone have those numbers handy?

Neal, its all in the folder linked at the top.  Look for “UZR0307.zip”

It should also be pointed out that MGL’s UZR was probably the first (and maybe only) that saw Eckstein as a super plus SS back in the early 2000s.  Most people passed him off as a “little guy”.

And of course, MGL was in a position of influence with the Cards when Eck came over.