THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Friday, August 11, 2006

Unusual Strategy

Last night in the bottom of the 14th inning, the Reds IBB’d Howard with runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs and the game tied.

The pitcher, Fultz, a lefty (and a righty pitcher on the mound for the Reds) was the next batter, with Rowand after that.  I don’t know if the Phillies had any better hitting pitchers available to pinch hit, but obviously they were out of bench position players.

Off the top of my head, I would say that this was a very poor strategy, but I am not sure, and I have not run it through my sim.  Anyone want to do a Markov?  In a very small sample - 15 AB - Fultz is 4 for 11 lifetime with 2 K, which suggests that he is not a bad hitter, and as I mentioned, he had the platoon advantage in last night’s game.