from Amazon
Tuesday, June 09, 2009
Two-thirds of what I’ve been asking for is double what I want
This exchange between Poz and Bill James is more like it.
At the same time, the awareness of “doing whatever you can to get on base”, among some hitters and some teams, was much more “naked” than it is now. In modern baseball it is considered bad form to specialize in walking, and nobody really does. But if you go back to 1900, 1910, 1920, there were a certain number of players—one or two on each team—who very clearly understood that their job was to get on base any way they could for the big hitters on the team. These people walked 115 times a year in large part BECAUSE nobody was paying attention to how often they walked.
Starting in 1901:
This is the
- number of players with at least 250 PA
- standard deviation of walks per PA
- average number of walks per PA
- percentage of players with at least .15 walks per PA
year n SD Avg highBB
1901 144 0.031 0.065 0.021
1902 141 0.030 0.067 0.014
1903 143 0.031 0.065 0.007
1904 150 0.028 0.063 0.007
1905 151 0.030 0.069 0.026
1906 143 0.031 0.071 0.014
1907 144 0.030 0.070 0.035
1908 145 0.028 0.067 0.007
1909 152 0.029 0.073 0.007
1910 145 0.031 0.084 0.034
1911 146 0.032 0.086 0.034
1912 142 0.033 0.084 0.049
1913 141 0.033 0.083 0.035
1914 216 0.030 0.083 0.019
1915 220 0.034 0.082 0.032
1916 145 0.030 0.080 0.007
1917 144 0.028 0.077 -
1918 125 0.033 0.079 0.032
1919 138 0.030 0.074 0.014
1920 151 0.030 0.074 0.007
1921 148 0.031 0.074 0.020
1922 152 0.028 0.079 0.020
1923 153 0.033 0.082 0.026
1924 147 0.033 0.080 0.027
1925 154 0.032 0.085 0.019
1926 154 0.034 0.085 0.039
1927 145 0.034 0.081 0.048
1928 149 0.035 0.083 0.040
1929 146 0.036 0.085 0.055
1930 159 0.033 0.080 0.031
1931 152 0.032 0.082 0.039
1932 148 0.034 0.081 0.041
1933 147 0.032 0.079 0.020
1934 159 0.037 0.085 0.044
1935 152 0.035 0.084 0.039
1936 152 0.037 0.088 0.086
1937 153 0.032 0.090 0.039
1938 146 0.037 0.094 0.103
1939 161 0.033 0.092 0.062
1940 151 0.035 0.091 0.060
1941 148 0.036 0.096 0.074
1942 150 0.034 0.095 0.073
1943 153 0.034 0.093 0.046
1944 151 0.031 0.085 0.026
1945 146 0.035 0.091 0.055
1946 164 0.037 0.095 0.067
1947 150 0.039 0.101 0.113
1948 164 0.037 0.106 0.116
1949 156 0.041 0.107 0.141
1950 149 0.036 0.106 0.101
1951 145 0.036 0.101 0.069
1952 150 0.034 0.097 0.067
1953 149 0.033 0.095 0.054
1954 155 0.036 0.098 0.090
1955 155 0.038 0.100 0.110
1956 149 0.036 0.098 0.087
1957 151 0.035 0.088 0.046
1958 152 0.033 0.090 0.039
1959 152 0.031 0.090 0.033
1960 152 0.034 0.090 0.059
1961 182 0.033 0.095 0.077
1962 191 0.033 0.092 0.058
1963 197 0.027 0.081 0.010
1964 202 0.031 0.080 0.025
1965 191 0.029 0.086 0.031
1966 192 0.032 0.081 0.016
1967 195 0.030 0.084 0.021
1968 193 0.032 0.079 0.026
1969 231 0.036 0.095 0.069
1970 238 0.037 0.096 0.101
1971 233 0.036 0.088 0.060
1972 227 0.034 0.089 0.053
1973 251 0.035 0.090 0.060
1974 241 0.036 0.089 0.062
1975 246 0.036 0.092 0.069
1976 250 0.034 0.086 0.036
1977 263 0.034 0.087 0.042
1978 262 0.033 0.088 0.050
1979 262 0.034 0.086 0.046
1980 273 0.034 0.082 0.033
1981 199 0.034 0.085 0.045
1982 266 0.032 0.085 0.034
1983 266 0.032 0.087 0.041
1984 268 0.032 0.085 0.026
1985 259 0.033 0.088 0.050
1986 269 0.032 0.091 0.041
1987 268 0.034 0.091 0.060
1988 270 0.031 0.084 0.026
1989 271 0.031 0.086 0.033
1990 270 0.033 0.089 0.030
1991 271 0.035 0.089 0.059
1992 265 0.035 0.088 0.060
1993 286 0.035 0.088 0.063
1994 238 0.035 0.093 0.059
1995 264 0.037 0.094 0.068
1996 284 0.036 0.092 0.049
1997 285 0.036 0.091 0.063
1998 301 0.033 0.090 0.047
1999 309 0.035 0.096 0.074
2000 312 0.036 0.099 0.080
2001 300 0.035 0.086 0.050
2002 302 0.037 0.089 0.053
2003 309 0.034 0.086 0.055
2004 306 0.036 0.088 0.052
2005 313 0.031 0.083 0.032
2006 310 0.035 0.087 0.052
2007 306 0.033 0.087 0.039
2008 314 0.032 0.089 0.038
The last column is pretty noisy, but it starts to look more interesting if you plot the 5-year running average. Various low/high points:
2%—~1900 (was there missing data for the early years?)
3.5%—~1912
11%—~1949 (WWII probably hurt the pitching pool)
2%—~1965 (big strike zone?)
7%—1972
4%—~1980-90
6%—1994-2000
And since 2000, it’s trended down towards 4%.