THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

I would guess Mr Hunter?

Yeah, my guess would be Torii, based on previous baserunning foibles.

Nah.  That would be too easy…

Nyjer Morgan

I would have guessed Torii Hunter, as well - given his recent screw ups on the base paths.

Josh Bell

Mark Teixeira

Link: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7621457

[7] If I recall correctly, that’s the second time Tex has flattened a catcher (probably has done it other times too).  Back when he was with Texas, he absolutely CLOCKED Posada.  Po held on to the ball and ended up hitting the walk-off HR in that game. 

That said, I think in that instance if Tex had slid he’d have been out.  Posada had the ball way in advance and was all set up.  His only chance was to knock the ball loose.  So it’s not the situation described by mgl.

I’d guess Ray Lankford vs. Darren Daulton, except that Lankford scored the winning run in that famed encounter, and would likely had been out had he slid. The way it sometimes goes.

I really didn’t like Darin Erstad crushing the Atlanta catcher (forget who it was.) People said “Erstad was a football player” - he was a punter - he sat in the stands and bbqed while everybody else practiced.

That hit by Teixeira was pathetic.  Deliberate attempt to injure.  In hockey he would have gotten his ass beat.  Deservedly.

Are we talking about the Tex hit on Bobby Wilson?  That was back in April.  Mike Scioscia and Wilson himself didn’t have any problem with it.  Say what you will about it but I assumed that was not what MGL was posting about since it is not a recent event.

Erstad’s hit ws on Johnny Estrada.  In that case he would have been out otherwise.  Erstad was a punter, but I have seen footage of him scoring a TD on a fake punt.  He almost certainly had the skills to have been a wide receiver, I guess he only punted because baseball was his primary sport and they didn’t want him to get Bo Jacksoned playing his hobby.

By MGL’s (fair, as in just) conditions, I’ll only say that we might want an annual Albert “Deadeye” Belle award.

#4 wins!  It was Nyjer Morgan in the 1-0 Florida win over Washington.  It was in the top of the 10th.

The Nyjer Morgan who has 31 steals with 15 CS and 11 pickoffs.  11!  In all fairness to him, we also have to count the balks with him on first if there are any.  And the pickoff errors.

I don’t follow the Nats religiously, but anyone with 15 CS and 11 pickoffs has to be a god-awful base runner…

MGL, the CS & PO are not mutually exclusive.

I have him thrown out by the catcher 9 times, PO with CS 6 times. I only have 3 other regular POs, with 2 pickoff errors.

Doesn’t make him good though.

Morgan went out of his way (as in missed the plate entirely) to run into the Cardinals’ catcher the other day.  Even though he wasn’t tagged, he was called out when a teammate grabbed him to push him back toward the plate.

15 - that would seem to qualify as the out on interference for Morgan that was on my stat sheet.

Whaddya know? Morgan charges the mound after a pitch behind him.

The Nats were down by 10, of course.

Brain, #14, according to B-R.com he had 15 CS, 11 PO, and 5 PO/CS, so I assumed that the CS and the PO ARE mutually exclusive, but the CS and PO/CS are not.  If the PO include the CS/PO, then it is 15 CS and 6 PO, which is still bad…

mgl, can you give me a link as to where I can find that on B-R?

I keep caught stealing by catcher, pickoffs and pickoff-caught stealing (along with pickoff errors) at each base. Official CS=CS2+PCS Total PO=PK+PCS.

However, I currently am not picking up SB and CS that occur on a batting event, most likely strikeout plus steal attempt. A programming enhancement to fix that is in the works.

Brian, for the statistics MGL gave, you need to look at the baserunning section on Baseball-Reference. This information is not included on the player pages but can be found within the league data. For all of MLB in 2010, the numbers are here:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2010-baserunning-batting.shtml

If you sort the list of players by the pickoffs column (PO), Nyjer Morgan conveniently moves to the top of the list.

Thanks, I found it.

I’m missing two PO for Nyjer.

Where B-R lists the CS at each base, those include PCS

        SB  CS SB2 CS2 SB3 CS3 SBH CSH  PO PCS
Morgan  31  15  26  15   5   0   0   0  11   6

9 times thrown out by catcher, 6 PO+CS, 5 PO without CS

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=7621457

I had time to watch that Tex-Wilson video.  That was worse than the time he got Posada years ago, yeah.  Posada had the ball.  Wilson didn’t. 

I think baseball would benifit by trying to get rid of the “block the plate” thing, and simultaneously going after players who think this is football.  Enough.

Hockey protects its goalie, and football protects its QB and kicker.  The reason is because those players are singularly focused on one thing, and we do not want them to be worried about the other things going on around them.  We don’t want the goalie to be in a position to try to defend himself from someone who does not have the puck.  We don’t want the QB to worry about not making the big pass because someone is about to rush him.

In baseball, their mindset is very old school: the catcher needs to be worried about the ball and the runner, as they approach him at a 90 degree angle at high speed, while he is unmoving, and has the flimsiest of protection on.

They don’t care about the catcher.  Why not make the Tex play a force play?  What is the downside to doing that?  And is that downside not good enough to save from ridiculous collisions like we see?

In this case, thee golf mindset of zero-tolerance makes sense: look for the most extreme case that can happen, and make that the basis for constructing the rule.

Isn’t it illegal for the fielder to get in the path of the runner?  It should also be illegal to lower your shoulder like Tex did there.  This seems to be an easy solution to me.  Don’t allow the catcher to block the plate and do not allow the runner to intentionally run into the catcher.  I’d say any contact in which the runner first makes contact in a similar way that Tex did is an automatic out, ejection and suspension.  If the catcher is blocking the plate the runner is called safe. 

There will be some contact.  If a runner slides in feet first the catcher is trying to stop those from crossing the plate, but it’s the intentional takeouts that bother me and they’re very easy to spot.  You could certainly write a rule that would protect the catcher and runner while also maintaining the same rules as we currently have.  If someone does what Tex did, he’s automatically out, automatically ejected and automatically suspended for a week or two.  That seems more than fair to me.  Is there a problem with that kind of rule that I’m not seeing?

Try to write that rule.

The easier solution is to make it a force play.

Are we sure making it a force play is going to stop the collision?  I’m sure there have been situations in which a collision has occurred when it was a force play.  The runner would still try to lodge the ball loose, wouldn’t he? 

Most collisions happen on relatively close plays.  I think the incentive to hit the catcher in an attempt to make the ball come loose would be enough to cause nearly as many collisions.

If you make it a force play, the runner has no reason to slide or make contact with the catcher.  He’s just going to run through like at 1B.  The catcher has no incentive to block the plate.

Thanks.  It’s obvious now that you said it.

I never understood why runners going into second or third don’t try and bowl over the fielder.  I am not condoning that - it is just that if it is legal to do it at home plate, then it must be legal to do it at any other base…

I’ve never understood that either, mgl.  I don’t condone it either and I believe it is illegal to get in the runner’s basepath, but I’m not sure of that.  So I’ve never understood why catcher’s are allowed to do it.

Catchers are not allowed to get in the way of the runner unless they are in the act of “fielding a ball” or “receiving a throw.” When they block the plate even without the ball, it is generally considered being in the act of “receiving a throw.” Obviously it is a judgment call.  It is tradition (and a bad one at that) - catchers blocking the plate and runners bowling them over.  As we know, baseball is a “macho” game and even bad traditions die slowly, if at all.

It is considered bad etiquette for a runner to bowl over a fielder other than catcher because they have no protective equipment.

Unlike home plate, a runner going into 2nd or 3rd also has to STAY on the bag.

A runner going into 2b who has no need to stay on the bag, like one who is already out on a DP, will try to take out the fielder.

I don’t think catchers gear is a factor. It is designed to protect from foul tips, doesn’t help much for full body collisions.