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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Monday, August 14, 2006

Tim, Tim, Tim, Tim, Tim

By Tangotiger, 11:31 AM

http://firejoemorgan.blogspot.com/2006/08/timmeh.html

There is nothing that opens up big innings any more than a leadoff walk. Leadoff home runs don’t do it. Leadoff singles, maybe. But a leadoff walk. It changes the mindset of a pitcher. Since he walked the first hitter, now all of a sudden he wants to find the fatter part of the plate with the succeeding hitters. And that could make for a big inning.

The chance of a guy scoring from a leadoff single or a leadoff walk is virtually the same (about 40%).  It’s as simple as that.  I know we want it to mean something more, like “a leadoff walk means the pitcher doesn’t have it right now”, or whathaveyou.  It certainly sounds exciting and plausible.  But, so did this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flat_Earth_Society

Tim, Tim, Tim, Tim, Tim.  Stop it.  Please.  (I’m sure Tim doesn’t read this, but how many degrees of separation between me and him?  Somebody, help me out.)


#1    awsytn      (see all posts) 2006/08/14 (Mon) @ 12:00

Awesome. But if you take away Tim McCarver’s and Joe Morgan’s right as Americans to make asinine comments, what else could they possibly have to say? Instead of being frustrated by their “conventional baseball wisdom,” I’ve slowly learned to be amused by it when I listen to their broadcasts. And I think I’m healthier for it.


#2          (see all posts) 2006/08/14 (Mon) @ 14:19

The expectation of total runs scoring in an inning is actually a little (.02) greater if the leadoff man singles than when he walks.


#3    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2006/08/14 (Mon) @ 14:32

Peter, can you quote your reference?  IIRC, I looked at this once, and in 1999-2002, I have the walk as ahead by .01.  Dave Smith at Retrosheet did one that covered many more years, maybe a 30-yr period, and he had them virtually dead-even.


#4          (see all posts) 2006/08/15 (Tue) @ 08:28

Calculated from 2003-2005 Retrosheet data.


#5    tangotiger      (see all posts) 2006/08/15 (Tue) @ 08:36

Good stuff.  That likely means that the 1999-2005 data has it dead even, just as Dave Smith’s 1972(?)-2004(?) data shows it.


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