THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Where’s the part where he says “If Braun is proven innocent, I will publicly apologize for writing this, which, despite using phrases like “if he is found dirty...”, almost entirely presumes his guilt, even though I don’t even have any of the evidence that I claim exists and shows he cheated.”

Unfortunately, it looks like there’s more evidence in support of the positive tests than not.

I think a lot of us were being generous with the allocation of a wait-and-see period, perhaps due to Braun’s personality.

As more facts continue to come out, it looks less and less promising that it’s a testing mistake.

As for Braun being a hypocrite. We need to stop right there. Humans, in general, are full of great advice for someone else to follow. We all know what we’d do if our kid was getting into trouble at school. We’d do this, and we’d do that ... then it happens and this and that don’t seem required for our situation. same thing when others rack up some credit card debt, or have a spouse cheat on them, or anything else.

Giving good advice and following that same advice are two different actions.

Reminds me of the situation of American education leaders asking some other nations how they were doing so well, and the response was that the followed the advise the US gave them a couple decades before. We just didn’t follow our own advice.

It’s not as easy as it sounds.

My strong preference is that we become more responsible and honest about things. That our expectation is that one lies and lies about their crimes and admits such only in the face of no other option is disappointing.

"As for Braun being a hypocrite. We need to stop right there. Humans, in general, are full of great advice for someone else to follow. We all know what we’d do if our kid was getting into trouble at school. We’d do this, and we’d do that ... then it happens and this and that don’t seem required for our situation. same thing when others rack up some credit card debt, or have a spouse cheat on them, or anything else.”

Love it. Absolutely love it.

When someone does something wrong or is accused of doing something wrong, be it Braun or Sandusky, we should shut up about about what we would surely do in that situation or what should be done to that person.

There but for the grace of G-d go I, or someone that I know and/or love.”

And that is from an atheist (me)…

For me, the writer pointing out Braun’s ‘chutzpah’ in his publicly telling ARod what to do a few years ago makes the whole column worthwhile.  No reason Braun had to do that.  And now, he has to walk a mile in ARod’s shoes…

I’m still in favor of the all-steroid Olympics (for those who remember the SNL sketch...)

Plaschke wrote:
We’ve heard such claims countless times before, yet not once under baseball’s current policy has a steroid test proven false.

That’s actually evidence of the system working properly. The test result is supposed to be kept confidential during the appeals process, and never released if the appeal is held up. So it’s quite possible that positive test results were overturned on appeal. The damage to the athlete’s reputation for being linked with a positive test is huge, even if he’s eventually exonerated. So we’re not supposed to know if an appeal is upheld. Indeed positive test results in other sports have been kept quiet, and I’m pretty sure it’s happened in baseball, too.

What’s different in this case, and, if Braun is ultimately exonerated, unfair, is that the results have been leaked prior to the appeals process running its course. If it actually was some testing error, Braun can’t fully get back his clean reputation. If instead he’s guilty, there’s plenty of time to condemn him later.

Had things followed protocol, nobody would be talking about Braun now; either we’d all find out after his appeal was denied, or we’d never know at all about it. And I’m okay with that.

"a 50 game suspension is not real punishment”

something tells me anything less than a public stoning would not satisfy the Plaschkes of the world

@7: pretty much. Anyone who thinks a 50-game suspension is “not real punishment” isn’t playing with a full deck. It’s one third his salary, and almost any chance of making various performance incentives and, with his team, pretty much any chance of making the playoffs.

now this makes no sense:

“If Braun is proven dirty, it shows that the new era is still succumbing to the temptations of the old one. It’s a huge blow to baseball’s best efforts. It’s an even bigger blow to the public’s trust in those efforts.”

1. Only an idiot would believe that banning something and strictly enforcing it would remove the temptation for it.
2. Isn’t catching people using illegal things exactly what the system was designed to do? If anything, that should INCREASE the public’s trust in those efforts. You are effectively saying that the only way to build trust is to catch nobody ever.

this is making my head hurt.

"As for Braun being a hypocrite. We need to stop right there. Humans, in general, are full of great advice for someone else to follow.”

Okay, but by definition, if Braun cheated, he’s a hypocrite (not just for cheating, but for not immediately fessing up). I’m not telling anybody what they should or shouldn’t do with their lives, but I’ll absolutely tell somebody if they’re being a hypocrite. I’d expect the same in return.

The far more likely analysis is “hubris” not “chutzpah.” It would be chutzpah if he’d commented knowing he was in fact using at the time.  Hubris is from commenting at a time when no comment was required, only to find himself in the uncomfortable position, as he claims, of being falsely accused himself down the road.  In the general run of Greek tragedy, if he’d kept his mouth shut about ARod he might not have found himself where he is today.  Personally, I think it’s all random, but the phrase “let he who is without sin cast the first stone” has a lot of wisdom to it.

Regarding the point about no successful appeals, Will Carrol was giving a TV interview the other day (I forget if it was on MLB Network or ESPN), and he alluded to a successful appeal.  They asked him what he thought of Braun’s chances of winning his appeal, and he said something like he only knew of one instance when a player successfully appealed a test, and that that instance was never publicly released (as per the protocol Geoff/6 brought up).