from Amazon
Monday, October 01, 2007
There’s been no expansion since 1969.
Here are the number of games pitched by US-born pitchers since 1919:
year G
1919 2189
1920 2415
1921 2368
1922 2388
1923 2398
1924 2396
1925 2374
1926 2392
1927 2400
1928 2418
1929 2408
1930 2407
1931 2428
1932 2439
1933 2424
1934 2408
1935 2431
1936 2449
1937 2414
1938 2386
1939 2383
1940 2420
1941 2415
1942 2330
1943 2402
1944 2405
1945 2342
1946 2336
1947 2341
1948 2372
1949 2381
1950 2353
1951 2370
1952 2378
1953 2362
1954 2379
1955 2318
1956 2354
1957 2315
1958 2304
1959 2322
1960 2336
1961 2660
1962 2973
1963 2978
1964 2969
1965 3027
1966 2961
1967 2979
1968 2989
1969 3597
1970 3610
1971 3594
1972 3473
1973 3553
1974 3549
1975 3571
1976 3555
1977 3808
1978 3824
1979 3829
1980 3920
1981 2547 (strike)
1982 3838
1983 3755
1984 3741
1985 3776
1986 3809
1987 3824
1988 3766
1989 3838
1990 3799
1991 3769
1992 3674
1993 3884
1994 2740 (lockout)
1995 3377 (reduced schedule)
1996 3801
1997 3713
1998 3887
1999 3811
2000 3711
2001 3731
2002 3577
2003 3588
2004 3605
2005 3529
2006 3494
G is IP/9. As you can see, in 1969 there were 3597 games pitched by US-born pitchers, and in 2006 it was 3494.
Here are the non-US-born pitchers since 1969:
yearID G
1969 280
1970 263
1971 269
1972 243
1973 322
1974 334
1975 287
1976 325
1977 386
1978 342
1979 335
1980 287
1981 241
1982 371
1983 439
1984 449
1985 408
1986 377
1987 351
1988 420
1989 353
1990 374
1991 428
1992 529
1993 617
1994 436
1995 626
1996 705
1997 782
1998 939
1999 990
2000 1094
2001 1079
2002 1231
2003 1227
2004 1217
2005 1274
2006 1312
That’s an extra 1000 games going to non-US born pitchers between 1969 and 2006.
In 1969, there were 24 teams. In 2006, there were 30. 6 teams times 162 games is 972 extra games. And, all those games went to non-US born pitchers.
Think about that. There’s the EXACT same number of US-born pitchers in MLB in 1969 and 2006, and an enormous influx of foreign-born pitchers. Now, if you have 1000 extra games being thrown, and you can pinpoint them all to one group, maybe that group of pitchers is somehow inferior.
Here’s the ERA since 1994 of US-born and foreign-born pitchers:
USA: 4.49
other: 4.44
Well, well, well. The pitching talents of the current average non-US pitcher is exactly the same as the US-pitcher. The entire pool of expansion rosters is completely made up of pitchers of the exact same talent as the existing pool.
And, don’t forget that the US population has risen much since 1969. And still, we have the same number of US-born pitchers.
Diluted pitching? Not since 1969.
The hitting numbers show a similar pattern: in 1969, there were 125,045 PA by US-born hitters, and 132,826 in 2006, and in-between, it’s been between 120,348 (in 1972) and 147,198 (in 1998). Once again, all the extra job have been outsourced to non-US-born hitters. Since 1994, the OBP/SLG:
USA: .335/.424
other: .329/.427
Fairly even.
The same non-expansion exists in the NHL. Whether in the 21-team league or the 30-team league, there have been around 400 US/Canada-born players. The new teams have been filled by European players. And, it should be pointed out, the average European (in the NHL) is a better player than the average US/Canada player (in the NHL). In order for both to be equals, you’d probably have to expand the NHL by 12 teams, all filled by European players. That would bring the overall average of the Europeans down to the overall average of the US/Canada players.
Expansion? Dilution? Please.