THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Must be the stranges inning in post season ever. All we need is shoe polish on a ball to prove HBP

Did McClelland call them both out at first, and then change his mind?

IIRC, the home plate umpire was moving up the line and called them both out, then McClelland overruled him.

To add to the horrible base running- Posada should never have been going home in that situation. Then he reached third base, and stepped off after RC was tagged.

Cano was literally standing there as if he were the beer vendor. Good thing the screw up didn’t result in any runs scored and only resulted in one more pitch thrown, or this would have been a much bigger deal.

Did Posada not see the ball jump off Cano’s bat? He acted like it was a routine fly ball. Why would he think tagging up was important with one out anyway?

And then we he gets in a rundown why does he decide to sprint back toward third with Cano standing at third. He does know that if they’re both on third base Cano is ruled out right? Did he think that he’s a better base runner than Cano?

Just bad base running by Posada.  Not much advantage in tagging up with 2 outs, as you say.

As far as going back to third base when he gets caught in the rundown, who knows?  And Cano standing off the base?  Crazy.

Looking at he replay, I can see why McClelland blew the call.  As soon as Cano got tagged, he immediately put his foot on the bag and barely moved his upper body in doing so.

The umpire was screened by Posada apparently.  As soon as Cano and Posada were tagged and Cano put his foot on the bag, Posada moved out of the way.  It looked to the umpire like Cano had his foot on the bad the whole time, and I’m sure that McClelland could not imagine why he wouldn’t have had his foot on the bag.  He has seen that kind of play a million times and each time both runners are standing on the bag.  I have NEVER seen a case where both runners were so confused that they deliberately avoided stepping on the bag as if the moment they did they would both be out or would disintegrate.

Anyway, I think it was a legitimate mistake by McClelland who was screened by Posada.  Of course he could have moved to get into a better position, but then again, why would he think he had to see Cano’s feet?  Surely Cano can’t be foolish enough not to be touching the bag!

Calling Swisher out on the tag-up at third was more inexcusable in my opinion.  He wasn’t looking at him.  Since you can’t really look at both the runner’s feet and the catch at the same time, you always give the benefit of the doubt to the runner.  Always.  That call should never be missed by an umpire and almost never is.  An umpire should sometimes blow it when a runner leaves early but should never blow it when he doesn’t. Never.

I’ll say something else about the Swisher tag-up play at third that no one has mentioned yet.

When I used to coach baseball I told my players that when they are tagging up at third and trying to score, most of the time they will score easily.  Given that, unless they felt like it was going to be a very close play, I told them, “Make sure that the fielder touches the ball well before you leave the base.”

There are two reasons:  One, if you try and time it perfectly so that you leave the instant the fielder touches the ball, you will occasionally leave too soon.  And two, the umpire will occasionally think you left too soon even if you didn’t.  There is generally no need to tempt the umpire into thinking you left too soon.

In this case, Swisher was going to be safe 100% of the time unless he fell down. There was no need for him to leave as early as he did, to be honest. I put part of the blame on Swisher.  I know that lots of people would disagree with me, but I think my logic is sound and that is exactly what I used to teach my players for that exact reason.  I will guarantee that if you looked at 100 videos of players tagging at third, in 98 of them, they clearly leave a “half a beat” after the fielder touches the ball.  Not so in this case.  Swisher left “too soon” even though he didn’t leave until the fielder touched the ball.

This isn’t a first time offense for Swisher this year either. An umped call him for tagging early on a second to third play in the regular season (and again, Swish did not leave early).

He starts his motion before even moving his feet which is what I think throws off the umpires.

As you said MGL, in situations where he is going to be dead safe he can afford to “safer” about it.

MGL, there are FIVE other umpires on the field.  The guy in the worst position to make the call may be the guy who is too close to the play.

The home plate umpire is the one guy who was not screened, seeing that all the runners were avoiding the foul line like the plague.  The home plate umpire should have insisted to the 3B umpire that the two runners were brainless and neither were touching the bag, as shocking a scenario that that could be.

And Posada was the stupider runner… why the heck did he overrun 3B on the way back?  The other runner must have been shocked by Posada doing that, which might be the reason he wasn’t touching 3B… he was disoriented by Posada’s stupidity, and so he started acting stupid.

Regardless, the home plate ump had the perfect view.

Maybe Posada was being a genius about it, conceding 3B to the faster runner, letting that guy stand on 3B, so he can get tagged out, and not have a situation where you can have two outs somehow (both in a rundown).  And so, the other runner was the idiot for not taking the base.

A tale performed by three idiots, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

I’m pretty sure that when Swisher was called out for leaving the bag early, it was a make-up call for the pickoff earlier that inning. McLelland would surely deny it, but considering he wasn’t even looking at Swisher at the time, I think he decided that if Swisher tried to score, he would call him out.

Also, on Cano’s double, Posada was fooled by Torii Hunter. Hunter pretended like he was under it and ready to catch the ball, which sent Posada scurrying back to 2nd. Still terrible baserunning by Posada, but Hunter deserves a little credit for an effective play-fake

Yes, Hunter should get the credit there.  Same kind of heads up baseball that Jeter always gets credit for.

Posada later made a mistake thinking a double play ball was the 3rd out and wasn’t covering home.  Torii Hunter was on third, and could have scored if he had noticed that before A-Rod did.

Figgins has been awful this series.  I keep waiting for him to try a bunt for a hit, but so far nothing.

The umping was really awful.  The plays involving Swisher I can at least understand.  The pickoff, in real time, was close.  The sac fly… how *do* the umps call that, anyway?  I assume they watch for the catch and try and catch baserunner movement out of the corner of their eye?  Anyway, that was either a mistake or a makeup call for the blow pickoff call.  It too was reasonably close.

The play involving Cano and Posada, however, was just amazingly bad.  They were both clearly out, and it appears that the ump *assumed* that Cano was standing on the bag. 

And yes, Posada is an awful baserunner.  He has been his whole career.  He’s not only really slow, but he’s got awful instincts out there.  Cano is not in the same category normally, but he seriously messed up in that spot.

"MGL, there are FIVE other umpires on the field.”

This.

First, I don’t understand how one of the other umps didn’t see the play (and it was blatantly clear that Cano was tagged out). And second, I don’t understand how McClelland wasn’t overruled.

And pick-off at second...granted the play was close in real speed, but considering the position in which the ball reached Aybar and the timing in which the ball reached Aybar (it was really a perfect throw), shouldn’t an ump assume that the runner is out rather than safe?

For what it’s worth, McLelland (who has been umpiring for a million years and always manages to be involved in controversial plays where he is clearly in the wrong) said he thought Cano was on the base the whole time. I don’t know HOW he thought that, but that’s what he said.

Funny bad umpiring story from my softball tournament last night. Runner on a first and a ground ball is hit to our girl playing second. She goes for the tag, the runner essentially slides into her legs halfway down the baseline. She falls on top of him. Actually on top of him. She gets up and throws to first to try to get the runner (who was safe). The umpire said she never tagged the runner, despite her glove (with ball) and basically every other part of her making contact with the guy at some point. It’s one of those calls that is so beyond terrible that there’s no way to even explain how that call could’ve been made. Those happen, and when it comes to the highest level in the world, they shouldn’t happen when we have the technology there to prevent it.

It was ironic that Swisher was called out for leaving too early on the tag up after having been called safe on a pick off attempt at 2nd base when instant replay clearly showed him out.  But what I am not sure I understand is how could the latter of the two calls be called a “makeup” call?  In order for it to be a makeup call wouldn’t the third base umpire have to know that the 2nd base ump had clearly missed a call?  Did they have instant replay up on the jumbo tron?  Without instant replay it wasn’t clear to me that Swisher was out on the pick off attempt.  I don’t see how the 3B umpire would’ve been able to tell one way or the other without the benefit of a replay.
vr, Xei

Xeifrank, whether McClelland knew that Swisher was out or not at second, there is NO way that was a “make-up” call.  Umpires do not do “make-up” calls on safe and out plays. No way. Occasionally perhaps on ball/strike calls (although they would not admit it or perhaps are not even aware of it), but safe/out calls?  No way!

That being said, the crows knew the call at second was wrong because there are Fox feeds on the TV’s all over the stadium.  Whether the umpire knew or suspected it from the sounds of the crowd, I have no idea.  If you look at that play at second in fast motion, it looks like he is safe.  I give the umpire a “pass” on that one.

Tango, sure, some other umpire should have corrected McClelland.  I think they didn’t out of respect to him, which is ridiculous of course. Or perhaps they couldn’t believe their own eyes either.  If you watch the video and take your eyes off Cano for just a second or don’t stare at him at all, you will wonder whether he had his foot on the bag the whole time.  It is almost like an optical illusion.  I can imagine the other umpires thinking, “Wait a minute, what did I just see?” And then let McClelland’s call stand.

While Posada certainly looked lost out there, between the two base running gaffes and thinking there were 3 outs on the other play, if he wanted to let Cano run the bases rather than he, he would indeed have to come off the base as he did (since if two players are on one base, the trailing runner, Cano, is out when tagged).  Of course that might confuse Cano, which apparently it did.  Plus, with 2 outs anyway, there is almost no advantage to having the faster runner on third.

And yes, the “reason” Swisher got called out was because of his upper body movement.  Then again, you DON’T call a player out for leaving early unless you are really sure and it is really obvious.  Has Swisher done anything good this LCS other than drawing a walk once?  I am starting to hate him as a Yankee fan.  His approach at the plate with a runner on third and less than 2 outs is horrible.  His approach seems to be to not swing until he gets 1 or 2 strikes (which is horrible for a high K batter), and then swing as hard as he can (you should just try and make contact of course).

The umps knew the pickoff call was wrong.  there was loud booing from the stadium that coinsided with the Fox replay’s but what really sold the call was Tory Hunter Running in right away knowing the umps were back on their heels and demonstrably waving that he left early.  Good job by Tory stealing one (back) there.  Heads up on the decoy with posada on 2nd too.  That Hunter is a heads up player.  Incidentally would those two plays or tex’s follow to 2nd on Abreu or Jeters check on Punto show up anywhere on fielding stats?

Unfortunately, it’s not in the online edition, but the print edition of today’s Seattle Times has a photograph of Swisher and Aybar, where you can see Aybar’s glove with the ball in it tagging Swisher, whose hand hasn’t reached the bag yet, and then the caption says “Swisher reached the base safely.” It’s like Bizarro World.

"what really sold the call was Tory Hunter Running in right away knowing the umps were back on their heels and demonstrably waving that he left early.”

I heard that and I don’t really buy it.  First of all, any umpire will tell you that no play like that is “sold” by a player.  An umpire will never call a player out on appeal unless he is sure that the player is out.

Second of all, all of those plays have to be appealed, so someone has to get the attention of the umpire and ask for an appeal anyway.  Whenever they do that they want the umpire to think that they are right. Someone is usually yelling, “Hey, he left early, he left early!” Most of the time, the umpire says, “No he didn’t. Safe!”

I have some further questions about this game now that I have finaly seen (most of) it.

On the Swisher tag at third, while I agree with MGL that in this case (and I am guessing most such plays) it was nowhere near close so the runner can afford to have some margin in when he leaves.

But this comment about the UMPs beeing fooled by the body moving before the foot leaves. If it _IS_ close and you need everything you can get, isn’t that exactly what you should do as a runner. Start from further back on the base and start moving forward sligthly before the ball i caught and “time it” so that at the instant of the catch you are already moving forward but your rear foot has not quite left the bag.

The other situation I am curious about is when early in the game A-Rod scored on a FC. The Angels pulled the infield in with runners at 2nd and 3rd no one out. The commentators were talking about how he was using hand gestures to inform the runner on 2nd (posada?) what he was going to do on a groundout.

He did not apear to use any “signs” or code but simply gesturing in “plain english”. Both from what I got from the commentators and how it looked to me with 0 outs his intent was to only go for it on a “great” groundout (a high hop or a slow roller) with 0 outs but that he changed to “I’m going” with 1 out.

Now to the curious part, according to the commentary the infield was moved back “a step or two” after the first out. This seems very counterintuitive to me… Does anyone have any enlightening comment on this situation.

The umpires knew Swisher was out at 2B because it was shown on the jumbotron.  You could hear the crowd react a little after that play, and I’m sure that a replay is what they reacted to.

No umpire will admit to doing a make-up call.  Whether or not one actually does it, only the umpire knows for sure.

Maybe it was just opposite day for McClelland.  He was going to call everything wrong no matter what.  The Angels should have tried pickoff plays at third every time Kazmir walked the bases loaded, tag the runner as he stands on third, and let McClelland call him out.

MGL,

Swisher has had a bad series (and had a bad DS as well).  I’m still a fan though.  Now, if the Yankees hadn’t won 5 of 6 games, I might feel differently.

He’s a take ‘n rake hitter, and it does look like he’s overswinging.  He’s slumping.  I don’t think his approach has changed.

Rally,

No, they don’t show replays on the jumbotron.  I thought what you though initially, but others who were there have explained that it was the little TVs around the stadium (not the jumbotron) that showed the replay (because they were tuned in to the Fox broadcast of the game).  So the umps wouldn’t have seen it.  They must have heard the crowd, though, and suspected what it meant.

The infield playing half way with 1 out after playing in with 0 outs is a little curious.  Sometimes it depends on the batter of course.  The infield tends to play up more with a batter who doesn’t hit the ball as hard or just a batter in general who might have trouble against that particular pitcher.

Where the infield plays should have nothing to do with what A-Rod told Posada.  A-Rod is telling Posada what he is going to do AFTER he sees where the infield is playing.  With 1 out, the standard play with any runner who has decent speed at third is to go on contact with the IF playing in.  Aybar gets A-Rod at home with any kind of decent throw of course, but it was good hustle by A-Rod.

As far as Swisher moving his upper body on the tag-up, that is fine.  I don’t know that it helps all that much though.  The standard procedure is simply to wait until contact and then push off as hard as you can like a sprinter in blocks.  And, as I said, you teach your players to make sure that they don’t try and leave too early even if it is not really early.  At least I did.

The idea of a “make-up call” because the umpires heard the crowd booing is preposterous.

Ok, NOW I’m a little irritated with Swisher.  That was not a good AB with the bases loaded in the 9th.  Sure, he eventually got it to 3-2, but that was more Fuentes than him.  He hacked at two balls to put himself in an 0-2 hole, then he got it back to 3-2 and got a fastball almost right down the pipe (up a bit)… and popped it up.  Ouch.