THE BOOK cover
The Unwritten Book is Finally Written!
An in-depth analysis of: The sacrifice bunt, batter/pitcher matchups, the intentional base on balls, optimizing a batting lineup, hot and cold streaks, clutch performance, platooning strategies, and much more.
Read Excerpts & Customer Reviews
If you are a media member and would like a review copy of The Book, please contact Kevin Cuddihy of Potomac Books.

Buy The Book from Amazon

MOST RECENT ARTICLES
MAIL : You ask | We say

Advanced


THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

<< Back to main

Tuesday, September 09, 2008

The Tiered Hall of Fame Plaque Room

By Tangotiger, 11:15 AM

Patriot highlights something that we’ve discussed in the past (I think back at Fanhome) about a tiered (Pyramidial) Hall of Fame (Plaque Room).  I don’t remember who originated the idea, but I like it.  The good thing is that if every you think that there are too many players in the Plaque Room, you add another tier to the Pyramid, and adjust all the numbers.  Say we want an Inner Circle Top of Pyramid Plaque Room of 25 players.  And you want a Penultimate Level of say 50 players.  And then a third from the top of 100 players.  And a bottom level of 200 players.  You can vote Tim Raines into the first level (everyone starts at the first level), and as Patriot noted, leave that for the writers to do.  You can even lower the acceptance level to 50%.  Or, as I like to do, ask the writers to vote “Yes, No, Ask me next year”, so that a Dwight Evans can continue to be on the ballot.  Once he’s in, you can have another committee decide if in one year the player can go to the second level.  And in 3 years if they can go to the third level.  And 5 years later if he can reach the pinnacle.  And if the pinnacle gets too big (say now pushing 30 players), create a fifth level, and move players up as appropriate.

As Patriot noted, whatever we do or so is irrelevant since we will never affect change here.  That position is not important for our purposes for discussion purposes.  Discussion as in discuss, not as in “this s-cks because...”.  You can take those posts elsewhere.  This thread is for classroom discussion purposes.


#1          (see all posts) 2008/09/09 (Tue) @ 13:14

Of course one can slice players into an infinite number of tiers—at every point you create a distinction between those above the line and those below the line, and at each and every line there will always be gray areas. With a 25 man tier there will probably be consensus that ten to twenty specific guys belong in and endless argument about which ones of the more marginal group are in or out.

The real problem that drives us sabermetric types most crazy is that there was clearly a period in the institutional history of the Hall of Fame when the Veterans Committee was not taking the mandate to induct only the greatest players ever very seriously, and treated the institution as more of a social club inducting some long-time friends and colleagues.  Creating an “Inner Circle” tier would help solve this left over Veterans Committee problem as diplomatically as possible—without having to actually evict a group of guys who clearly don’t belong with the rest of the inductees.  I’m not sure what value tiering would have other than to solve that very specific problem.

A tier as small as 25 seems unlikely to adequately represent the variety of skills and historical contexts that is inherent to the charm of baseball.  I think one would want an “Inner Circle” tier to include representatives of all positions and all eras, power hitters and OBP guys and those whose contribution on defense was good enough to qualify them as all-time greats. You want some utterly dominant-prime guys and some long brilliant career guys.  You want deadball guys and lively ball guys and 1960s deadball 2.0 guys, etc. Otherwise one ends up caricaturing baseball rather than expressing its richness and historical variety.

It seems to me that by selecting just about an average of one player per year for the historical era the BBWAA voters were assumed to be covering (the 19th century was pretty much left to the Veterans Committee to worry about), putting them at just over 100 players elected, the BBWAA has done a good job balancing exclusivity with variety.  You can argue with a few of the BBWAA inductees over the years, but there are really very few truly egregious inclusions.  It seems to me an Inner Circle tier roughly reproducing the number of players that the writers have inducted—about 100 players representing the period 1901-current —and adding 10 to twenty more spots for the pre-20th century period, and then adding one aditional spot every year going forward, would serve quite nicely.  Most likely there would be broad consensus that 90 or so of the BBWAA inductees would fit in such an Inner Circle uncontroversially, and argument about the remaining Inner Circle group would be inevitable.


#2    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2008/09/09 (Tue) @ 14:09

You are arguing for two tiers, the Inner Circle and the rest.  That’s fine.

Some want an even more exclusivity, be it 10 or 25 or 50 players.  Players who can stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Babe and Williams and Mays and not be clearly in their shadow.  A constant tiering solves the problem of continual bloating.  Any time it gets too big, you create another tier.

You can even do this retoactively, say starting in 1900.  Anyone who is aged 45 years old becomes a candidate.  So, you start off with a few players every year for tier-1.  By 1910, say you have some 30 players.  You decide that is bloated enough, and decide to create a tier-2.  You elect 5 of those guys to tier-2, leaving 25 in tier-1.  Ten years later, you’ve got 55 guys in tier-1.  You decide to move 10 of those guys up, and now you have 15 in tier-2 and 45 in tier-1.  And you keep going on.  Once a tier is bloated enough (which you can codify), you create a new tier.

Each time, you get to elect Babe Ruth and Ted Williams to a newer inner circle.  At some point Willie Mays joins them.

I think it would be really cool (which means someone out there thinks it’s really stupid… never ignore the likelihood that a baseball fan thinks that any change from “tradition” is stupid… “tradition” = the way someone thought it should be, and we are now forced to accept forever… if you think like that, consider it said already.)

Dwight Evans and Alan Trammell and Tim Raines and Andre Dawson and Edgar Martinez will get elected very quickly to Tier-1 level.  They get their prestige.  I’d go for voting in 4 players per year, so that today we’d have say 350-400 players in this Hall.  Maybe 200 in tier-1, 100 in tier-2, 50 in tier-3 and 25 in tier-4.

Rather than trying to vote yay/nay on Dewey and Rice, we can at least recognize that they are very much in the discussion, and then the argument is whether they would move up an extra level.

When the discussion is about the negative aspects of voting for the Hall, rather than the positive aspects of being voted in, there’s a problem.  It’s the entire yes/no, winner/loser scenario that’s the issue.


#3    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2008/09/09 (Tue) @ 14:16

I’m very much in favor of an “Elect-4” situation every year.  A player is a candidate starting at age 45, through to age 55.  After that, he’s no longer eligible. 

- The reason I go for age-based, is so that a player is compared to his peers.  Kirby Puckett was born after Raines and Rickey.  It seems ridiculous to put him on the same ballot with guys who he didn’t play with as much as those guys he actually did play with. 

- And a 10-yr window is to ensure that a guy is compared to players he actually played against for a good part of his career.

- The Elect-4 recognizes that times change, and so we elect players based on their peers.  The cool think about the tiered aspect is if you think the players from the 19th century were really some glorified minor league players, then they can stay for the majority of the part in tier-1 and very few of them go up to tier-2, and almost none will get to tier-3 and tier-4 status.

Something for everyone.


#4    TC      (see all posts) 2008/09/09 (Tue) @ 17:54

I’m curious how to define the Inner Circle HoFer.  Take a guy like Mike Schmidt, for instance.  He’s almost certainly the best 3rd baseman of all time (until A-Rod, at least, has played about 500 more games at 3rd), and yet, he’s 37th alltime in OPS+ among players with 3000PA. 

I think, bare minimum, you’d have to include the greatest player at each position.  This creates a few more problems, of course.  Piazza’s easily the best hitting catcher of all-time, but does that make him better than Johnny Bench?  What about guys with particularly outstanding skills?  If Ruth/Aaron, Mays/Mantle, Bonds/Williams make up the best two outfields of all time, does Rickey Henderson also make the IC for the stolen bases?  How many pitchers do you include in the Inner Circle?  Does a single reliever deserve to be there?


#5    Patriot      (see all posts) 2008/09/09 (Tue) @ 18:25

TC’s post illustrates one of the advantages that I see for a tiered hall, which is that it would lead to these types of discussions occurring more often. (I wish I would have made the point I’m about to make in my blogpost).

The current HOF structure has it backwards.  It focuses all of the debate, all of the excitement, on the marginal candidates.  Truly great players make boring HOF cases--no one has to debate the merits of George Brett v. Mike Schmidt as they are both no-brainers.  But if we had tiers, then you might see a Brett/Schmidt showdown.  Even if everyone agreed they were easily 2nd tier, there would be a potential for an argument about who was better and thus should be moved up the ladder first.

If you design an intelligent voting system, then this would have the potential to be much more interesting than the usual “Is Jim Rice good enough?” stuff that we see.

Also, tiers provide everybody with the ability to decide which level they want to consider hallowed.  Think that the HOF should be reserved for only the elite of the elite, Cobb and Mays but no Griffey?  Then ignore tier 1 and 2 and focus your attention on tier 3. Think that Reggie Smith and Jimmy Wynn should be honored?  Then focus on tier 1.


#6    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2008/09/15 (Mon) @ 07:36

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-grand-national-conversation/

Chris look like he’s taking some shots at Patriot, though it’s hard to be sure.

But, Patriot’s point #5 proves his point after you read Chris’s article.  Instead of talking and debating and celebrating about who’s the best, we instead spend all our time debating the marginal players.  The shoo-ins get the discussion for one year, and then boom, we barely talk about them.  In some weird way, Blyleven is better off than Greg Maddux when talking about the HOF.

Also missing in Chris’s article is Dwight Evans and Lou Whitaker.  As I’ve said in the past, the voters should vote “yay, nay, ask me next year”, so that these guys would continue to be on the ballot.  It’s silly to determine if YOU get to see him on YOUR ballot next year if someone else thinks he should be in the HOF this year.

A tier-ed approach gives us the best of both worlds, in terms of getting any marginal candidate in the first tier, and then we can debate the more deserved up.


#7    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2008/11/10 (Mon) @ 11:38

Get ready for the annual “let’s talk about the best players on the ballot this year and never talk about them again” in December, and the annual “let’s talk about the marginal players on the ballot this year, and talk about them every single year” in December and January.

Yup, makes perfect sense.  Instead of talking about the Rays and Phillies until opening day, let’s talk about the Mariners and Mets and Cardinals.


Page 1 of 1 pages


Name (required)
E-Mail (optional)
Website (optional)

<< Back to main


Latest...

COMMENTS

Nov 19 15:14
Sabermetric Moves of the 2009 Pre-Season

Nov 19 19:42
Nate Silver: hero to interviewers

Nov 19 19:31
My 1B is better than your 1B

Nov 19 19:13
Offense by position groups by decade

Nov 19 17:32
Changes in home run rates during the Retrosheet years

Nov 19 16:40
One Year and One Million Hits Later

Nov 19 16:22
Soria as a starter?

Nov 19 13:50
Response of a fired head coach

Nov 19 11:26
MLB logo

Nov 19 10:53
BDB Database (MS Access)