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Friday, August 25, 2006
The Shift
When Bonds was Bonds the shift probably did not hurt him all that much overall, or at least the decrease in production from the shift was but a mere drop in the bucket compared to his overall offensive production.
Now that he is no longer Bonds, I am beginning to wonder if the shift is really hurting his overall offensive value.
Most players hit ground balls to the pull side 75 to 80% of the time, IIRC. It would probably be correct for the defense to shift on them as well, if not for one thing. They could then lay down a bunt or intentionally try and hit a ground ball to the opposite side enough of the time to render the shift ineffective.
What about Bonds? Can he not bunt or hit to the opposite side enough of the time to thwart the shift, or is it not “manly” to do so? I suspect the latter. He would only need to do so until they stopped shifting and then go back to his regular hitting style.
His BA is just too low for someone with a great batting eye and someone who swings so hard when he gets a good pitch to hit. I suspect that the shift is really hurting his production and that he could do something about it if he wanted to.
I’m looking at his hitting spray on MLB.com for 2004 and 2006.
In 2004, the majority of his groundball outs are on the pull side, though there are several also on the opposite-field. His singles also show a similar tendency, though with a better spray pattern. I don’t see that much of a difference when I look at the 2006 spray chart.
I’m not sure it’s really in his best interests to change his hitting style.
He also happens to have a WPA of +3.2 (of which +0.7 of that is clutchiness). Being +2.5 wins otherwise, above average, in half-a-season, is still great! I’m sure that’s easily top 20.
His performance with runners on base is tremendous. His BB/K rate is 36:28 with bases empty, but 63:13 with men on base. His wOBA is .350 and .500, respectively, with about 200 PA in each situation, which is a spread of over 4 SD.
I wouldn’t be surprised if such a smart hitter is already actively altering approach, but continuing to pull the ball as he does.
In short, my rule of thumb is: if you have a great hitter or a great pitcher, let them work it out.