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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Tuesday, May 15, 2007

The Satisfaction Deflation Rate

By Tangotiger, 11:36 AM

I disagee with Patriot that this is a freak show stat.  Baseball-Fever is filled with freak show stats.  This is not one of them.

What makes this not a freak-show stat is that it attempts to quantify something real: our satisfaction with our team.  In short, how much of your soul would you sell for a moment in time?  Patriot posits a 3% satisfaction deflation rate.  If the 1994 Expos went on to the World Series, would the debacle that followed have been acceptable?  In short, could they have lived life in Miami from 1998-2002, if they got 1997 out of it?

I think it’s a definite worthwhile exercice, and it’s also personal.  Each person will have his own satisfaction deflation rate for regular season wins and losses, as well as for playoffs and World Series. 

The process makes it legitimate, even if the expression of the units themselves don’t have a meaning.


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#1    Pizza Cutter      (see all posts) 2007/05/15 (Tue) @ 14:17

It is something of a freak show stat in that in that it measures something very subjective and variable (people’s feelings toward something), but then again, I work with measures of feelings all the time.  I’ve seen widely accepted ones that are developed on much less logic than this.


#2    tangotiger      (see all posts) 2007/05/15 (Tue) @ 15:25

A freakshow stat is 1000*(SLG+OBP+BA)+R+RBI+TB+HR+BB+SB+H.  Some genius did that 20 years ago in Montreal thinking he solved life’s great mystery.  It means absolutely nothing other than “more is better”.  It doesn’t represent runs, wins, performance, or anything tangible or intangible.  It’s not a model.  It is nothing.

Measuring something subjective and dynamic is not a freakshow stat.  If you were to actually poll people, and ask them how much of their soul they would sell, you might end up with something like Patriot is doing.  He’s actually constructing a basic model.

Semantic issue aside, would people live like people in Miami did from 1997-2002, if they knew?  Would people in Boston have preferred 1987-2003 instead?


#3    tangotiger      (see all posts) 2007/06/06 (Wed) @ 07:33

Patriot does a followup, and I offer a suggestion in the comments:
http://walksaber.blogspot.com/2007/06/discounted-team-championships.html


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