THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

JoPo is still the best writer.

You know, at least until Jay Mariotti gets another gig.

I just got the book today.  Feel free to use this thread to make whatever comments you like…

I just did a first pass read of the book.

For me, the #1 article was Mike Fast’s look at Cliff Lee.  Those familiar with the various PITCHf/x articles will know alot of the concepts.  What Mike does here is layout it out as concisely and completely as we can hope, in terms of evaluating pitchers.  It serves as the foundation for PITCHf/x analysis that speaks to both the pitcher/scouting community as it does to the fans and analysts.

There are several other articles in the book that can also be considered “primers” of sorts and are all excellent reads.  Rally’s TotalZone looking at the Retrosheet years was well-done, as was MGL’s piece on talent levels for each team.  Colin’s piece on run creation (looks like some or most of it was from his site), Craig Wright on Mike Piazza.  Phil walks you through how to look at aging curves. Greg really gave us more to think about with HR park factors and simply shows (to me) how bad a job it is to apply a one-size-fits-all park adjustment.  Victor’s surplus value of prospects was also a good primer.  John did a great Retrosheet look at what happens to players after the guy ahead of them were walked (this is the kind of research I like to do all the time, so that’s one I can knock off).

That’s all that’s coming to me at the moment, and when I bring the book back upstairs, I’ll provide more comments.  Either that, or I didn’t read the other pieces yet.

Overall, just a very good set of research articles that lays the foundation for baseball analysts.

If I wasn’t a bum, I’d buy a copy. Right now I have no job and no money, except for a little savings.

Rally’s article sounds intriguing. I always wondered how you could use Retrosheet PBP data to analyze defense.

That’s what Barnes & Noble is for.  While normally I would say to support whoever that you appreciate, only do so if you have the means…

When I do get back on my feet again, my next 2 book purchases will be the Hardball Times Annual and “The Book”. I wish that I could find an affordable used copy of Pete Palmer’s Hidden Game, both the Baseball and Football versions. Why are copies of the Hidden Game so scarce?

It is a… well, not exactly a reprint. Everything in the article appeared on StatSpeak during the run estimator series. It felt like a pretty substantial rewrite to me at the time, and I’d recommend it to anyone who hasn’t read the original, but I don’t really think it adds anything for someone who read the articles on StatSpeak.

I think it reads tighter, so I would recommend it in any case.

Thanks.  We appreciate all comments from all readers.  And, if anyone is so inclined, a review at Amazon.com would be helpful.

If you’re so inclined…

I just read Gassko’s well-done article on performance and height, and that is yet another in the “primer” series that seems to be so prevalent in this year’s annual.

All these articles simply give you a fairly broad view of how to approach a problem analytically, and then gets specific enough on the follows-through, while inspiring the reader to go off on his tangent.

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As for studes’ request, I second it.  Obviously, I can’t post my comment, as it would be a clear apperance of conflict of interest to the Amazon reader.  People here in my blog (hopefully) know that the appearance itself isn’t germane.

Poz’s story, which is a nice a supplement to Walsh’s article:
http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2008/12/02/hardball-and-kingman/

I’ve only read about a quarter/third of the articles. But, the quality seems to be consistently good on the high end, and...there isn’t really a low end. There are no bad articles that I have seen.

In addition to the usual/expected good stuff from Tango, mgl, Gassko, etc., I think my favorite article in the book so far is the one by C Wright on Piazza. Craig Wright still has it going. I also liked the ones by Sal Bx on the postseason and V Wang on trade evaluations. Wang is a saber guy to watch.

And as usual, Tango is one step ahead with the catcher defense research he has been doing for a few years--it’s a relatively untapped though important and interesting area of sabermetrics. And, it’s tricky enough that it requires some creative thinking--you can’t simply plug the usual formulas into catcher defense. Keep working at it, Tango. Eventually, we’ll have a good understanding of the catcher.

Onward with the rest of the articles…

Crap, I still have not gotten my book.  How did it come?  Regular mail, UPS?

Never mind!  Just got it by priority mail.  It was on my desk. I just got back from T-giving vacation.  I can’t wait to dig in!

THT Baseball annual is one of the best values around. The 2009 edition is no different-it’s a must buy.

Concerning copies of the Palmer’s Hidden Game, I bought mine from ebay for $4 (American) but any good library can get you one via interlibrary loan if it’s not in their collection already (the same is true for the James Abstracts with the exception of his first couple that he hawked in the classifieds).

BTW, The Book is an absolute bargain as well.