THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Phillips and Morgan were in rare form that game.  The inanity was off the charts.  I had to turn off the sound.

Sadly Joe Morgan was better that night then Steve Phillips.  That just goes to show just how bad Phillips was.

I have this nightmare that I hope never comes to pass.

I look at Joe Morgan as the perfect sabermetric player.  A guy that small, able to generate that much value (105 career WAR according to Chone, where anything above 75 is a HOF-shoe-in:
http://www.baseballprojection.com/war/m/morgj001.htm
), with less than 300 career HR, and twice as many walks as K, with all those steals, without getting CS much. 

This sounds like a rich man’s version of Tim Raines.  My nightmare is that Tim Raines becomes a broadcaster and sounds like a typical (baseball) broadcaster.

I’ll be honest.  Joe Morgan has never really bothered me.  I mean, I’ve disagreed with him, but I’ve always enjoyed hearing what he has to say because he does have a different perspective on things.  I also think he and Miller are kind of amusing and make watching a game fun.  I’d enjoy sitting and watching a game with Morgan.

Phillips, on the other hand, is an absolute dolt.  His observations Sunday night were the worst I’ve ever heard in a national game. The week before, he actually claimed that pitchers have an impact on how many runs teams score for them (the anti-Blyleven argument, I guess).

How can a former GM be so stupid? I would never, ever want to watch a game with him.

My aggravation with Morgan isn’t so much that he’s so, so wrong.  It’s that he’s willingly ignorant, when it’s his job to teach people about baseball.  Obviously he’s an entertainer, not a “real” teacher, but can you imagine if a high school teacher was not only misinformed about his or her subject, but had no desire to even try to learn anything further?  What’s the point?

And studes - take a look at Christopher Wallace in the NBA, who’s a current GM of a franchise worth hundreds of millions of dollars and is possibly dumber than Phillips.  Part of me thought it was all a ploy, that he’s really pretty smart but likes to play the loud buffoon to coax other GM’s into dealing with him because they think they can fleece him.  Then he gave away his best player to the Lakers last year for a couple replacement players, and of course the Lakers made the finals last year and likely will this year as well.  It’s the equivalent of trading Beltran for Wakefield in a fantasy league - supposedly a few of the other owners and GMs legitimately thought there was collusion involved because it was such an awful deal to make.

studes must be referring to Phillips’s explanation for Johan Santana’s lack of run support. 

According to Phillips, Santana’s problem is that he is so good, he causes his teammates to relax with the knowledge that they don’t need to score many runs to win the game. Conversely, when an inferior pitcher is on the mound, they know they need to score a lot of runs and so they mentally prepare themselves to do so.

Maybe Santana should stop being so good, then the Mets would win more games.

I always love the arguments that:

Player X strikes out more often because he didn’t like what Manny said in the clubhouse

-or-

Johan Santana is pitching today, so I’m going to give away 3 of my at bats since we don’t need any runs.

Anybody try to do an analysis on this, or is it so stupid that it’s not worth the bother?

The problem is that Phillips thought he was signing the Carlos Beltran that had carried the Astros over a 12 game stretch during the post-season in 2004.  He was .435/.536/1.022, 8 HR, 6 SB.  I don’t think his game’s been inconsistent since then.  I think it’s been nothing but a consistent disappointment.  If Beltran had held up his end of the bargain, Phillips might still be the Mets GM.

According to Phillips, Santana’s problem is that he is so good, he causes his teammates to relax with the knowledge that they don’t need to score many runs to win the game.

That was only the second part of his argument.  At first, he just said certain pitchers seem to “uninspire” their offense.  He mentioned Trachsel, specifically.  Then he went into his idiotic Santana routine.

Phillips didn’t sign Beltran.  He was long gone when that happened.

Phillips was fired two seasons before Beltran was signed by the Mets.

Phillips is also often blamed for trading Kazmir for Zambrano, which he didn’t do either.

dan- Yes, but it’s still fun to blame him for that.

Phillips was fired two seasons before Beltran was signed by the Mets.

Well that sucks out what little funny there may have been in my post.  Did I mention that I’m Phillips’ and Morgan’s personal fact checker?

Steve Phillips defending Steve Phillips:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/steve_phillips_chat_on_05_20_09/

This officially makes ESPN probably the worst employer in the universe (*)

(*) Thankfully, this is the one-time where being American-centric helps me make my point.

If any person employed at any baseball-related company made any single one of those comments by Phillips, they would be demoted or fired for pure incompetence.  Phillips argument techniques were last seen on a sandlot among 10-year olds. 

He is instead one of the faces of ESPN.  You tell me how does this country make any sense when ESPN gives more airtime to Phillips than NHL playoff highlights every single day.  And, to use Phillips own words: those hockey players are winners, and Phillips is not. 

Unfortunately, any argument made by the ESPN-brass in support of Steve Phillips would be what you’d hear on a sandlot filled with 9-year olds.

I guess Beltran should’ve mentally willed Pagan out of the way. True winners have psychic powers, you just can’t see it!

I think there needs to be a reality TV series with Phillips running a fantasy baseball team in a league with 29 other people. The unintentional humor would be off the scales.

The sad thing is that he doesn’t even bring a business sense to the table, either. At least if he gave insight to what goes on between GM and agents, he might have some value. Instead he just spouts off a ton of silly things.