THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

I just read Phil’s comments on the study, and not the study itself.  It appears to be an awfully roundabout (and innacurate, blunt, etc.) method of determining that there is no “hot hand” in soccer.

Also, the study that Phil mentions (that he did) about pitchers who get shelled early in the game seems to be at odds with the research that Tango did in our book, which shows very large predictive value for early game poor pitching for a certain subset of pitchers and small predictive value for all pitchers as a whole (IIRC).

A very nice website, BTW, so far.  One that should be in the favorites of anyone interested in sabermetrics.

I agree fully with MGL’s comments. It says more about the lack of opportunity to profit from sport betting markets than anything else—especially when one considers the lack of liquidity in the market in question.

I also would caution the conclusion about the fact that the market continues to change (bid price continues to increase) after a goal was scored. Given the small sample size in question you’d have to look at the specifics of each game, and the timing of the goal to draw than particular conclusion (IMO).