THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Out of curiousity how thorough of projections do you need to participate in this contest?  How many players do you need to project (rookies)? And how many offensive and pitching stats?
vr, Xei

If there are 20 forecasters, and 25 players for each forecaster, then that would mean everyone has to supply 500 names.  I’ll supply the final counts once I have the final list of forecasters.

As for categories, you can check here:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/challenging_nate_silver_and_all_other_forecasters/#35

Won’t this competition sort of come down to who correctly picks which players have better-than-expected seasons?  I’m guessing projection-team rosters in different drafts will look surprisingly similar once you get beyond the first few rounds, because each player will go to one of the few projection-teams who think the most highly of him relative to the others.

Better than expected, where the expectation is set by the other 19 forecasters.  Yes, this is entirely the point.

The 25 guys I draft out of the 500 players better be better than each of the 25 guys of the 19 other forecasters.

Three other forecasters have stepped forward in some capacity: David at THT, Walt Davis at Primer, and “Christopher Guest” who I don’t know.  I think that makes 14 right now.

***

SG (Cairo) joked that the prize would be a “pocket protector”.  I love the absurdity of the idea.  Would make a great logo to brand on the site of the winner.  So, come up with some ideas, the pithier and less snooty, the better.

Acceptance List (ongoing)

These are the ones who will be providing me with at a minimum their list of forecasts (to which I will apply the points system and sort to create the list) and at a maximum the exact order of their players.

2008 stats only
ANONYMOUS 1
ANONYMOUS 2
Ask Rotoman
Baseball Info Solutions
CAIRO
Chone
Christopher Guest
MGL (Metric 3 only)
Marcel
Oliver
RotoWorld
THT
Walt Davis
ZiPS

***

As noted, I’m ok with ANONYMOUS forecasters.  They are like the amateurs at the PGA: they get to play, but they don’t get any of the prizes.  Same deal here.

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That’s 15 so far.  My target is to get 20.  Feel free to invite others who you think may be interested.

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I’ve asked Ron Shandler to act as Advisor.  This will lend this project insight, as well as more visibility and authority.

I’ll lean on Ron for assigning positions for rookies and guys who never made their MLB debut, as well as coordinating the roster list of minor leaguers with no Retrosheet IDs.

UPDATED (16 so far)

2008 stats only
ANONYMOUS 1
ANONYMOUS 2
Ask Rotoman
Baseball Info Solutions
CAIRO
Chone
Christopher Guest
Cory Schwarz
MGL (Metric 3 only)
Marcel
Oliver
RotoWorld
THT
Walt Davis
ZiPS

Has BP simply not responded, or have they bowed out?

I have been unable to reach Nate Silver, despite repeated attempts.

Clearly, they are the ones that will generate the most interest in wanting to know where they stand.  I would prefer to get their official participation, and have them provide me with an ordered list.  Official participants even get to shape the entire process as well, so that’s another bonus for participation.

However, if they refuse to do so, I will appoint someone to act as proxy.  That person will be charged with grabbing whatever PECOTA forecasts they can get at whatever point in time they can get them, and provide an ordered list, based on the metrics and fielding positions I will supply.

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It is disappointing to say the least that I have not received a reply, especially considering that Nate himself issued a similar (unanswered) challenge to one of his peers in the political world.  It reminds me of Homer issuing his challenge for a duel.

UPDATED (19 so far)

2008 stats only
ANONYMOUS 1
ANONYMOUS 2
Ask Rotoman
Baseball Info Solutions
CAIRO
Chone
Christopher Guest
Cory Schwarz
MGL (Metric 3 only)
Marcel
Oliver
RotoWorld
THT
Walt Davis
ZiPS

Derek Carty (tentative)
John Burnson (undecided)

PECOTA (at least by proxy)

I thought I mentioned this already, but I don’t see it on the thread…

What about ESPN projections?

In defense of Nate Silver, he really only does baseball as a hobby these days.  He apparently has just signed a $700K deal for two books, one on politics, the other on prediction in general. 
That said, I guarantee you he would not back away from this challenge if he had seen the email among the 500 (or 538?) he is getting every day.  Email me and I will give you his cell phone number, which he does answer.

And yes, I have a man-crush.

Dan/11: (you need an internet last name, like amiv maybe?) Can you post a link to these ESPN projections?

Dan/12: I’m not really crazy about phone calls, especially making my first call as a (possibly unwanted) solicitor.  Just not my thing.

Maybe I’ll change my mind if ST starts and I haven’t heard from him.  Thanks for the good idea.

ESPN doesn’t have projections for 2009 yet. If they do I couldn’t find them. I imagine they will put them under the same link as the 2008 projections:

http://games.espn.go.com/flb/tools/projections

Looking at the 2008 projections, I predict that ESPN finishes in last place.

CBS Sportsline has 2009 projections.

http://fantasynews.sportsline.com/fantasybaseball/stats/sortable/points/1B/standard/projections

Fantasy Scope, they even mention your Marcels: http://fantasyscope.wordpress.com/2008/11/13/2009-fantasyscope-early-projections/

terps, that’s fantastic.  Thank you!

22 contestants so far. Are you going to put a limit on the number of contestants? Or, are you going to include as many as you can find?

UPDATED (22 so far)

2008 stats only
ANONYMOUS 1
ANONYMOUS 2
Ask Rotoman
Baseball Info Solutions
CAIRO
Chone
Christopher Guest
Cory Schwarz
Fantasy Scope
MGL (Metric 3 only)
Marcel
Oliver
RotoWorld
THT
Walt Davis
ZiPS

Derek Carty (tentative)
John Burnson (undecided)

PECOTA (at least by proxy)
ESPN (proxy)
CBS (proxy)

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My target was at least 20, and definitely no more than 30. I’m trying to mimic the Fantasy world, and I imagine that the AL and NL leagues have 10 to 12 teams each?  So, I think the ideal might be 24 teams.

Nate has replied, and informed me that his time constraints won’t allow him to participate.

I have asked him to at least provide the playerId with the forecasts he posts publicly.  We’ll see if he will.

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This should be standard practice among all the forecasters, by the way.  If anyone posts a set of forecast, insist to that person to publish the playerID, so we can cross-link that forecast to other forecasts.  I don’t know if Rally or Szym or Gassko or SG or the others post the playerIDs, but if you see that they don’t, ask them to.

Razzball added:

UPDATED (23 so far)

2008 stats only
ANONYMOUS 1
ANONYMOUS 2
Ask Rotoman
Baseball Info Solutions
CAIRO
Chone
Christopher Guest
Cory Schwarz
Fantasy Scope
MGL (Metric 3 only)
Marcel
Oliver
Razzball
RotoWorld
THT
Walt Davis
ZiPS

Derek Carty (tentative)
John Burnson (undecided)

PECOTA (at least by proxy)
ESPN (proxy)
CBS (proxy)