THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Depending on how you evaluate their fielding, Rajai Davis and/or Joey Gathright might belong.  What do the fans say, Tango?

Kosuke Fukudome - Cubs fans uniformly hate him. His offense, while not very good, is undervalued because it largely derives from his high walk totals. His defense is undervalued. He’s not a CFer, but he’s a very good defensive right fielder from what I can tell (ZR/RZR).

Franklin Gutierrez when he’s not hitting well (somewhat mitigated by getting blocked from CF by Sizemore)

How about the Twins’ Carlos Gomez? He fits the quantitative pattern but I’m not sure he’s underrated or undervalued (though that’s difficult to ascertain).

Coco Crisp fits the mold pretty well.

Add Brian Anderson of the White Sox

He had an ‘08 VORP of 1. But is an excellent defender (+3 in 450 CF innings this year) and was +12 on the basepaths.

Another vote for Franklin Gutierrez—numbers say average D in LF and CF, +2 wins in RF… platoon bat… Might be too good to go on this list.

Gabe Gross? Barely above replacement level bat for corner outfield, +1.5 wins for defense.

It seems the fans don’t respect his defensive abilities (may have changed this year) but Willie Harris.  He may be better of a hitter than your looking for though.

I don’t have my 2008 scouting numbers handy at the moment, but I remember Fukudome being very high, as was Gutierrez.

2007 numbers have Davis above average:
http://tangotiger.net/scouting/pos2007_CF.html

Gathright doesn’t have good numbers:
http://tangotiger.net/scouting/pos2007_LF.html

Fernando Perez, too.  Rebuilding teams should just grab three of them, get a flyball pitching staff, and shock the world.

Now that I think about it, the Cubs actually have two of these guys - Felix Pie is another one.

Looking at Justin’s Total Value stat and adding Fielding and PosAdj then putting everyone at a rate of 700 PA (minimum 200 PA) here are the top OF with Colin’s wOBA Marcel Projections :

F. Gutierrez 27.05 .323
E. Chavez 25.84 .306
W. Harris 25.42 .326
R. Davis 21.98 .310
C. Gomez 18.81 .308
C. Gonzalez 17.94 .312
C. Beltran 13.29 .367
J. Werth 12.63 .354
A. Amezaga 12.46 .306
C. Ross 12.45 .350
K. Fukudome 11.15 .329
Adam Jones 10.89 .326
S. Victorino 10.83 .342
G. Sizemore 10.71 .378

Wasn’t Jason Tyner well above average, defensively?

How do the models rate Reggie Willits?

How about a guy like Juan Pierre? Would he be the reverse-Endy, who’s over-valued in spite of similar abilities?

Corey Patterson?

Rajai Davis of the A’s. I’ve been arguing on Athletics Nation that he might actually be a better option for opening day CF (and, at the very worst, a roster spot) than Carlos Gonzalez if Gonzalez demonstrates he needs a little more AAA seasoning.

From the past, Vic Davalillo was very similiar. the Pirates of the early 70s had Oliver, Clemente and sometimes Stargell in the OF. He was the #4 OF on those clubs.  I have done alot of work on player families and they are close.

I just posted the Fans’ Results (so far) in an unformatted version.  Feel free to use that here.

Sean/12: great list.  Yes, Adam Jones (based on his hitting so far) is another candidate.  Really, even if he doesn’t hit any better than he has, he is still at least an average player.

Obviously, Beltran, Sizemore, and Victorino are outside of the Chavez family.

I’d like to toss in another supportive vote toward Rajai Davis.  Like Cameron’s article about Langerhans on FanGraphs, Davis’s story is another example of outstanding defensive outfielders being undervalued.

Davis should not have made it through the entire NL on waivers earlier this year, when the Giants DFA’d him and the A’s added him. 

I probably saw Davis in centerfield 40 times this year.  He is, in a word, incredible.

Terrific instincts, absolutely fearless, underrated arm, and great judgment, too; if he lays out for a ball - which happens constantly - you can bet it will never get underneath him and roll all the way to the wall for a triple/homer.  If he gambles, he’s going to catch it, period.

Throw in his baserunning skills and, ironically, he’s the perfect 25th man on a roster...and yet he slipped through the entire NL? (the league that requires more substitution and roster management).