THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

I count 54 CG wins for Morris by <= 3 runs: http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/mVuG

72 for Blyleven: http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/tGNG

22 for Smoltz: http://www.bb-ref.com/pi/shareit/YTQw

I didn’t double check my counts, so those are likely off by a few games.

Why only credit him for games that were won by less than 3?

According to Rule 10.20, a pitcher can earn a save when he meets all three of the following conditions:
(1) He is the finishing pitcher in a game won by his club; and
(2) He is not the winning pitcher; and
(3) He qualifies under one of the following conditions:
- (a) He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning; or
- (b) He enters the game, regardless of the count, with the potential tying run either on base, or at bat, or on deck (that is, the potential tying run is either already on base or is one of the first two batsmen he faces; or
- (c) He pitches effectively for at least three innings. No more than one save may be credited in each game.

A starting pitcher would satisfy 3a, b and c.  If you ignore #2, the starting pitcher would get a save for every game he completed, regardless of score.

Good point!

I just did a chart of every one with at least 50 CG Saves since 1957.

3a or 3b could only be satisfied by a starting pitcher who was on the away team and his team scored in the first inning (they require a lead).  Starting pitcher does qualify under only 1 and 3c (with the exception of the above example) if rule 2 is excluded.  So the score doesn’t matter other than his team must win.

I think the greater implication is that the SP should get credit for the high-leverage innings that a typical one-inning closer would otherwise pitch.

"Jack Morris thinks that if he....” ummmm where is this written? Or did you just make it up for the sake of the conversation?

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=caple/080110

Hmmm… Morris didn’t say it.  It was Caple, based on what he thinks Morris was trying to say.

What I’m going to begin researching is how many saves Jim Caple has…

Regardless of who said it, this is a dynamite thing to think about, Tom, one that I’ve actually done some research on for a while now, mainly revolving around Smoltz.

What I had come up with was the following, and forgive me if it has already been said, but -

a) A pitcher cannot receive a save for a complete game if it is the home team, because the home team begins on the field with a 0-0 tie.  When home pitchers “enter” in the first inning, they enter into a tie and therefore cannot get a save.

b) 3C in the rulebooks can be a bit misleading.  It doesn’t stipulate the three effective innings as the LAST three innings.  According to 3C, if Morris’ team leads by two runs during the 4th, 5th, and 6th innings, he could get credited with a save.  So, the 3C rule has to change to the last three innings of a game.

c) Due to the fact that only Visitor Starting Pitchers could record this, we cannot effectively find how many of these CG-Saves there are because of how certain rotations may work.  Unless every pitcher had the same amount of home and road starts, how can we fairly determine these statistics?  Look at the following example.

d) Pitcher A and Pitcher B each have 30 starts.  Pitcher A has 18 home starts and 12 road starts.  Pitcher B has 10 home starts and 20 road starts.  This tells us that Pitcher A could only record a CG-Save 40% of the time whereas Pitcher B could record a CG-Save 67% of the time.  Clearly, Pitcher B would have an advantage, even if the complete games of Pitcher A were better/more effective.

Those are just the beginning of my thoughts on the matter.  I should shut up and write an article on it already.

Only one of 3A, or 3B, or 3C has to be true for a save, not all three.  So, since rule 2 must be discarded to make this a ‘complete game save’, only rule 1 and rule 3C are needed.

I would love to see the following situation -

Pitcher A goes 9 innings, gives up 12 hits and 7 runs, while walking 5 and striking out 3, repeatedly giving up his team’s lead throughout the first six innings, but then holds a lead of two runs through the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings, to record the first ever “Complete Game Cheap Win Save.”