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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Thursday, June 18, 2009

The best and worst 82mph fastball in baseball

By Tangotiger, 09:32 AM

Dave points out that it could belong to the same pitcher:

That’s his arsenal. An 80-84 MPH cut fastball. That’s it. He throws that pitch, and that pitch only, 99% of the time. He also has thrown this loopy 72 MPH curveball a couple of times this year, but practically every pitch he throws, in every game, is this low-80s fastball with some tailing action away from right-handers. I faced guys in high school who had better stuff than this.

However, whatever DiFelice does to his cut fastball, or however he hides the ball, or whatever voodoo spell he chants before he pitches, it works wonders against right-handed bats. Here’s his career splits since joining Milwaukee:

Vs RHB: .149/.192/.202, 120 PA
Vs LHB: .321/.357/.717, 56 PA

I presume it’s location, location, location?


#1    Alan      (see all posts) 2009/06/18 (Thu) @ 10:59

Is it possible that the pitch breaks late?  All other things equal, a pitch that breaks late would probably be more effective than a pitch that breaks early.


#2    dan      (see all posts) 2009/06/18 (Thu) @ 11:41

Alan--

It barely breaks at all. The average horizontal movement on all his pitches has a range of -3.2 to +1.5 inches. That’s pretty much as straight as it gets.


#3          (see all posts) 2009/06/18 (Thu) @ 12:54

Alan:

There’s no such thing as early break or late break - at least from a Physics point of view. I won’t deny that it can be perceived that way. I would guess that perceived late break = lots of break.

Dan:

This is going to sound like a paradox, but a pitch with no horizontal and no vertical break according to PITCHf/x is not a “straight” pitch - at least from the batter’s perspective.

The reason is because the batter’s frame of reference is not a non-breaking pitch, but a “straight” fastball - which is not a non-breaking pitch according to PITCHf/x.

By my estimation (and this is not an agreed upon number by any stretch) a straight pitch, as the batter perceives it, has about 6” of hop, 4.5” inches of tail, and is about 86mph.


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