THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

The babblefest of Jack Morris, best pitcher of the decade

By Tangotiger, 04:11 PM

The best pitcher of the 1980s.

I’m sure you’ve heard that plenty, right? About Jack Morris? Just take some arbitrary 10-year period, preferably bordered by round numbers, like “80s”, and you have your test of greatness. Why not “pitcher of the decade”, and take something like 1976-1985? Or 1986-1995?

Anyway, let’s get back to 1980-1989. In that time period, Jack Morris led the league with 2443.2 innings. Let’s set the minimum IP qualifier to 80% of that (1955 IP). We actually get back only 11 pitchers. Among those pitchers:

Morris is 7th in ERA+! Unquestionably, the pitcher of the 1980s was not Jack Morris, but David Stieb, with the era-leading ERA+ of 127, far ahead of #2 Bert Blyleven. Here’s the full list.

Jack Morris’s W/L record was 162-119, a win% of .577. But, that’s #2 behind Bob Welch’s .596. Stieb was third at .562. Steib was also 2nd in IP.

What’s better? The #1 (by far) in ERA+, #2 in IP, and #3 in win%, or the #1 in IP, #2 in win%, and #7 in ERA+? I know this sounds like a trick question, but it’s not! There’s been mountains of ink spilled by people claiming, proudly, that it’s the latter.

Let’s shift things by one year: 1981-1990. The IP leader (Morris again) was 2443.1, making the threshhold level 1955 innings. Now, Stieb looks even better, bumping his ERA+ by 2 points to 129, compared to Morris’ 108. His win% is .593 while Morris is at .569. Heck, Morris doesn’t even compare to Bob Welch (ERA+ of 115). Welch was 150-90, compared to Morris’ 161-122. You get 11 more wins with Morris, but 32 more losses too! Morris had a 3.70 ERA compared to Welch’s 3.17.

If you want to give Morris credit for most wins for the decade, fine, go ahead. But, don’t call him the best pitcher for the decade. Stieb is definitely ahead of him. And with Welch, Nolan Ryan, Bert Blyleven, Charlie Hough and Fernando Valenzuela around, Morris is lucky to even be considered better than any of those guys for “best” pitcher of the 80s.

• Sabermetrics • Awards

#1 studes (see all posts) 2008/01/02 (Wed) @ 19:09

I’ve been playing around with WPA above replacement (.350 team level) and here are the top ten pitchers of the 1980’s (1980 through 1989). WPA totals are in parentheses:

Stieb: 39 (21)
Morris: 36 (18)
Valenzuela: 36 (18)
Quisenberry: 34 (23)
Welch: 32 (16)
Ryan: 31 (15)
Gooden: 30 (20)
Hershiser: 29 (18)
Righetti: 29 (16)
Tudor: 28 (16)

Just for fun.

#2 JD (see all posts) 2008/01/03 (Thu) @ 01:59

I’ve recently heard Morris vs. Blyleven arguments (as if only one of them could possibly get consideration. Why not both? Or neither? I don’t really get the premise of the debate, but I digress). People who love Morris seem to talk about them as contemporaries, but Blyleven had some of his best years in the half-decade before Morris even broke into the league. Just another example of selectively choosing stats to fit an argument (which is what tango alludes to with “Just take some arbitrary 10-year period, preferably bordered by round numbers, like “80s”, and you have your test of greatness.”

Anyway, interested about Stieb. Is he even still on the ballot?

#3 (see all posts) 2008/01/03 (Thu) @ 19:39

Makes me glad that I had Stieb and Welch on my APBA keeper league team back then

#4 SirKodiak (see all posts) 2008/01/04 (Fri) @ 03:17

Stieb got 7 votes (1.4%) in 2004. 5% is required to stay on the ballot.

#5 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2008/01/04 (Fri) @ 08:15

I know that when I was growing up the most “feared” pitcher was not Jack Morris. Stieb, Hershiser, Gooden, Goose, and Ryan were ahead of Morris, among others.

Morris got the tag of best simply because people need to proclaim somebody the best for a 10yr period that starts with a year ending in a zero. And because of that, he gets to keep the tag forever.

#6 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2008/11/10 (Mon) @ 12:08

Bumping in anticipation of Jack Morris Babblefast 2009.

#7 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2008/11/13 (Thu) @ 10:24

I have an expanded article at THT:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/jack-morris-babblefest-2009/

Half of it is new…

#8 (see all posts) 2008/11/13 (Thu) @ 15:23

I recently read the argument that one of the ways the Hall voting process is flawed is the following: If every writer considers you a second-ballot HofFer when you are first eligible, you get no votes (or fewer than 5%) and you are dropped from any further consideration. Quisenberry, Stieb, Whitaker, Grich, etc.

This is not to say that each of these deserved to be voted in on his second year of eligibility.

However, this flaw in the process does help to explain why some candidates who deserve at least a decade of consideration get only one year instead.

#9 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2008/11/13 (Thu) @ 15:55

Right. I’ve been a long-time proponent that balloters should mark each player as:
- Yes
- No, Never
- Ask Me Next Year

This way, if you can get at least 50% of Yes or Ask Me Next Year, then you can remain on the ballot.

Clearly, if you have 50% saying “No, Never”, then it would be kinda hard to eventually get 75% of the vote, even with new blood voting and the old curmudgeons leaving.

I had a long blog post about this last year. I’ll see if I can find it.

#10 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2008/11/13 (Thu) @ 16:09

Here’s the discussion about that. Please use this thread to talk about HOF improvements:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/hall_of_fame_issues/

There’s also an article from studes in there.

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Wednesday, January 02, 2008

The babblefest of Jack Morris, best pitcher of the decade

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