THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

I posted this at USSM, about the advantage that eyeballs have over UZR and other PBP systems, using Betancourt as an example (this year, Mariner fans are way down on him):

The YuBet example is exactly why these reports are important. PBP metrics will show numbers all over the place year-to-year, and, because of their small sample, will NOT imply any kind of directionality (the uncertainty range around those numbers makes it that you can’t tell if someone is on a trend or not). However, *your* numbers don’t have that problem. Your uncertainty level around his evaluation is far lower, and therefore, if we see him going from an “82″ to a “66″ (or whatever the final numbers will be… 50 is average for a fielder and 60 is average for a SS), then we *can* conclude that something drastic did happen to him.

I updated the main blog entry to show you the current counts, and all the blogs that have shown their support. 

I’m waiting for a few more blogs out there to link in, and I’ll be asking for some help in a few days with the missing teams.  I’ll tell you right now though that I am always desperate for MARLINS fans.

We’re up to 1143 ballots (with 50% being submitted for the Mariners and Redsox). 

A call-out is being sent out for fans of these MIA teams:
Rangers (2 ballots)
Marlins (3)
Pirates (4)
Dodgers! (5)
Nats (5)
Indians (7)

More blogs updated in the main entry. (If you’ve blogged about this, and I haven’t acknowledged you, please email me.  I try to make sure I get ‘em all.  Note that my logs are only updated every night.)

The Dodgers (thanks Jon), Indians, and Rangers (thanks to yet-to-be indentified persons), are now off the APB.

Still on the APB: Marlins, Pirates, Nats.

Next 3 on the low side: Whitesox, Astros, Padres.

The professionals of Baseball America:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/07besttools.html

We’ll see how they compare with the Fans.  I can tell you that Derek Jeter will not come out #1, and Betancourt has suffered a serious setback this year.  Only a Mariner fan (or scout) would really be aware of that.

If BA represents the best of the scouts, and if the Fans’ Scouting Report represents the best of the fans, I think the fans are better.

I work about 2 miles from the Nats but sorry, I can’t be of any help here.  I’ve probably watched less than 5 of their games on TV this year.  Blame the tight pennant race in the AL west for distracting me.

The Nats (thanks Chris) are now off the APB.

Still on the critical list: Marlins, Pirates

Appreciate any extra support for the Whitesox, Astros, Padres.

#5, those “best of” are based on surveying the managers I think, which is why so many of them (at least the defensive ones) are moronic.  If the managers cannot figure out that Adam Everett is the best defensive SS in baseball and Jeter is listed as #1, can anyone have any faith in anything a manager thinks about a player?  Seriously.  You know what I call managers morons, in general?  Because they are.

Seriously, if the average manager thinks that one of the worst defensive SS in baseball is one of the best (how is that even possible?), how can they evaluate ANYONE’s defense on a team?  If your high school science teacher believed in Santa Claus and leprochauns, would you beleive anything he said? If your President did not believe in global warming and thought that evolution was just a “theory” (in the vernacular sense)… Never mind.

"what” should be “why” above…

Over 1300 ballots, which is fantastic.  Ballots for the last 4 years: 500,800,1100,1400.  I expect to get a few hundred more ballots until the end of the season, so participation has been increasing every year.

No teams on the critical list (all with at least 5 ballots).  Pirates and Marlins are still fairly low (6 ballots), and Astros (9), Whitesox (10) could do for some improvement.  Otherwise, I’m extremely pleased with the support.  Mariners (329!) and Redsox (243) fans were over the top.

I’d love to give out full preliminary results, but I’m always worried about influencing future voters.

Cool “Wisdom of Crowds” story by Dan Fox:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=512

Over 1400 ballots.  Blog list updated at the top.  If I missed any, please email me.  Thanks to all for your continued support.

1643 ballots.  Great job everyone.

1686 ballots.  Thanks, much appreciated.  This is yet another year where the year-over-year increase will be at 300 ballots by the time I close the polls.

I’m pretty excited to see the results, and I’m hoping the junk ballots are still below the 2% mark.  I asked for a link at mlblogs.com, and I received a very disappointing 6 ballots.  There is definitely a different mindset of fans at mlblogs.com compared to fan-driven blog sites.

Data at the top updated.

Data has been compiled.  Look for results before the post-season starts.