THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

I’m guessing Upton was plenty embarrassed by it before even being taken out.  And I’m sure a number of other players have done the same thing (and even worse gotten thrown out at 2B, although I obviously don’t have proof for such a thing).  Not sure if taking him out was the best move, but definitely up for debate. 

By the way, just by watching the video I don’t see how he could have gotten a triple out of that even with a good runner like Upton, could certainly be wrong though.

I was watching the game, and while it was inexcusable, especially with 2 outs, it has definitely been done before and will be done again.

Whether taking him out of the game was the correct thing to do, I also have no idea.  Probably doesn’t matter one way or the other, since you have to talk to the player no matter what.

I also agree that watching the game and the replay, it did not look like he could have even come close to a triple.  The CF fielded it well on one bounce off the wall, or something like that.

I guess the ultimate question is, when a player thinks he has hit a HR and dogs it, how often is he wrong?  I know that some people (Tango?) will say that a player has a duty to run hard on everything, no matter what, but there has to be a line doesn’t there?  If a player hits what looks to be a 450 foot HR, does he have to sprint to first base?  No one does. No one.  So where is the line between “I just hit a HR 100% guaranteed,” and, “I think I just hit a HR, but I am only 98% certain?” There is no line.

What if Upton thought that there was a 99.99% chance it was a HR, just like that 450 foot HR that NO ONE sprints to first base on?  If I hit a pop-up to the infield (with no wind) do I have to run hard so that if the .1% of the time it drops I get to second base?  I don’t think there is a one-size fits all answer. However, I do think that all players have a duty to play hard as much as they can, and I think that the manager has a duty to remind the players as such.  If a player has shown a consistent disregard for this type of play, as opposed to the occasional lapse that EVERYONE has, then it needs to be pointed out to him and perhaps he needs to have some consequences.

Then you have the issue of “results versus process.” If one player runs out all batted balls 90% of the time and another player does it only 75% of the time, what are the chances that player B will get burned and player A will not?  In other words, did Upton just get unlucky and got burned or is he a consistent dogger.  If the latter, which is what they were saying on TV ("this is not the first time, he has done that"), then that is a different story. But it needed to be addressed BEFORE this happened.  You can’t wait until a player gets burned. That might never happen and if it does, you have wasted all that time and negative expectancy.  When a player dogs it below whatever threshold you, as a manager, find acceptable, that needs to be addressed BEFORE something like this happens.  So, for example, if Upton jogged 10 times on HR balls that went over the fence, but not over the fence by 50 feet, he needed to be taken out games THEN and not only when he got burned…

So where is the line between “I just hit a HR 100% guaranteed,” and, “I think I just hit a HR, but I am only 98% certain?” There is no line.

This is exactly right, I think.  As a fan, I’d be more pissed at Upton if he pulled a hamstring sprinting around first on something that cleared the wall.  Ricky Henderson was criticized for dogging it but he also lasted in the game for a very long time despite stealing a ton of bases.  Does anyone think that he didn’t work hard at the game of baseball?  Or that his efforts didn’t produce more wins than those of the guy who sprints to first all the time?

My answer to this is that while, as MGL says, there is no line between when it’s worth running hard and when it isn’t there isn’t a bright line between running all out and dogging it either.  You should never walk on a baseball field but there are certainly times when it’s not worth running hard enough that you could pull a hamstring.  I think there’s a pace that’s generally accepted as “correct” for a ball you think is probably going over the fence.  I didn’t see the Upton play so I can’t comment on this one in particular.

MGL, I agree with you on the assessment that a player shouldn’t have to run out every fly ball on the small off chance it doesn’t go as they expect it. I also agree that this needs to be addressed prior to a player failing to do so and getting burned, so that the habit is hit before it happens and doesn’t appear necessarily as punishment.

I think there is a pace that a player should take between completely dogging it and running all out like you would on a double, to ensure you have a shot at a double if you miss. And there should not be any staring at your hit, as there was in Upton’s case I think.

Injury is the one reason I can think of that you shouldn’t run out balls that are 99.9% sure to be an out, foul, or HR.  I remember Dusty Baker saying that he didn’t want Bonds running hard to first.  You guys are right, in many cases the risk of running hard until the ball lands outweighs the benefit of the 1 time out of 1000 that it drops in and you give up an extra base or two.

That said, you’ve got to be damn sure the ball is leaving the park.  I’d argue that when it comes to home runs, there is no excuse for not running, because you should only not be running when you think the ball is ~20 rows back or something.  And if it’s not, it will still be a home run. 

Popups and grounders to the pitcher - in those cases I can excuse not absolutely sprinting.  But not really for home runs.

Q1. Why do you run hard in practice?

Q2. Can’t you pretend that the “easy out” is like practice?

Yup, there is a difference between running reasonably hard on a fly ball that you think might be a homer and running as hard as you can on a routine grounder or a pop fly on the off chance that the fielder bobbles the grounder or drops the popup.

There is another consideration that might outweigh the chance if injury. You are getting paid millions of dollars to entertain the fans.  If in not running hard sometimes in order to avoid possible injury, you piss off or alienate the fans, well, then maybe you should run hard, despite the risk of injury. You owe it to the fans to at least give the appearance that you are playing at 100% effort as much as possible.  Most fans generally don’t care that in running 100%, you have a 1% chance of pulling a hammy or groin muscle.  They want to see max effort.  That is what they expect for the hundred dollars that it cost them to watch you play and for the millions of dollars that the fans pay you to play…

The least amount of effort you can put in a real game is the maximum amount of effort you put in practice.

It makes zero sense (less than zero) to try harder in practice than in a real game.

The continuum looks like this: