THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Thanks, Tom.

Good questions.  I’ll try to answer them as I get the chance, starting with the last one first.

Yes, his spin deflection on his fastballs diminishes throughout the game.  He gets about an inch less horizontal spin deflection and an inch less vertical spin deflection on both his four-seam and two-seam fastballs between pitch #10 and pitch #70 of those five games.

Re Lincecum, I’ll see what I can do for a strike zone location chart for his change-up later.  I can’t imagine, though, that batters learn much about how to hit it or lay off it since this is his fourth year in the league and he’s getting as many swings and misses on it as ever.  I know you’re asking that because you’re curious how batters might adapt to Strasburg the second or third time around the league, but I don’t see why you think Lincecum might show that effect when the macro evidence suggests otherwise.

Here are the charts for how his four-seam fastball spin deflection changes throughout the game.

The drop in the horizontal movement is pretty clear and consistent across the game.  The pattern in the vertical movement is a little more interesting.

I’d like to know if Lincecum is throwing his changeup way outside the strike zone like Strasburg is.

Though, Jimenez and Josh Johnson might be better comparison pitchers.

Basically, is it possible to throw your changeup outside the strike zone so often and continue to have batters chase it?  Or, is it that batters are disbelieving that a pitch thrown at 90mph can break that much and so, believe it to be a sinker instead and swing at it like its a sinker?

***

Presuming that batters will eventually lay off his changeup if it keeps staying out of the strike zone, would it help Strasburg to throw a “slow sinker” (in addition to his hard sinker)?  That is, is it helpful if he can throw a 91 sinker and a 91 changeup, so that he can continue to throw his changeup outside the strike zone.

Or, is the presumption basically moot, because that’s simply the way changeup work, that most good changeups are thrown outside the strike zone to begin with?

Mike, two beautiful charts, very clear.

And, maybe alot of folks missed it, but, you got the scaling almost perfect.

The x-axis in the first chart is for the horizontal, and the y-axis for the second is for the vertical.  Most people would be tempted to put the “time” on the x-axis in both cases, but I think making it match the real-life visual horizontal makes it more important.

(I said “almost” perfect for an even more nuanced reason that I won’t elaborate because it would be picky.)

At the speeds we’re talking about, there’s no way hitters can lay off of the pitch ... particularly if it drops.

By the time the hitter recognizes the pitch is below the knees, it’s too late ... the swing has already initiated.

Now, hitters might decide to just not swing at any pitch, particularly with 2 strikes at the knees ... because, well, there chances of making good contact are slim anyway. Since the balls are out of the zone, they make just take their cances with the umpire instead.

Still, we make it sound so easy.

Every time I hear or say “92 mph change-up” I chuckle. I topped out at 84 mph (fastall) in college.

I will say that Strasburg appears to be intelligent by placing his change-up primarily “down” to RHB’s as opposed to “out”.

[1] Out is easier to lay off than down.

[2] Change-ups to same-handed batters that end up “out” are (IMO) less effective b/c the ball is moving toward the barrel, but when it starts out at the knees and drops, batters hae already decided to swing and it’s too late to stop.

Zone location for change-ups thrown by Tim Lincecum in April 2010:

Great stuff Mike.

Against RHH, Lincecum is throwing his changeup close to the strikezone, but just off it inside.

Against LHH, he’s also throwing it to his pitching handside (outside for LHH), and probably close to half an inch off the strike zone.

Strasburg against RHH can’t keep throwing his changeup that low.  They are going to learn to lay off it until he starts throwing it closer to the strikezone.

Against LHH, it’s close to what Lincecum is doing, maybe a bit more off the strike zone.  He can probably keep that up.

Here’s a fun fact that I learn in my psych class on sensation and perception about 10 years ago: for every sense modality, there’s a *ratio* that determines when we’re able to perceive a difference between physically different events. Here’s an example involving pressure: if I press against you with force x and force y, you won’t be able to tell that one is greater than the other unless (x + 1/53*x)>|x-y|.

If a similar result holds true for vision, then there’s a number c such that you can’t tell the difference in velocity between two moving objects unless (x + c*x) > |x-y|. That means that as your fast ball gets faster, it becomes harder and harder to tell from your change up, for a given difference between change up and fastball speeds.

So there’s a serious question whether hitters will be able to perceive the difference between his fastball and his change up. They can only learn to lay off pitches the difference between which they can see--or guess, based on count and history.