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Saturday, June 14, 2008

Defensive Indifference: Strange thing in BOS/CIN game today

By , 07:16 PM

In the bottom of the 10th inning in today’s BOS game, CIN was down by 2 runs with 2 outs, with Jolbert Cabrera, a veteran journeyman player, on second base.  With Griffey on base and the shift on, Jolbert easily took third on the next pitch, since no one was playing near third base.

Now, obviously being on third base is no better than being on second in that situation.  In fact, you can make an argument that a foul ball occasionally hits a runner on third in fair territory, so that it is better to be on second, although I don’t think I’ve ever seen that, and it is exceedingly rare (if it has ever happened at all).  Plus, being on second base, you can possibly steal the signs or the location and relay it to the batter, although runners rarely if ever do that anymore (I am not sure why).  On the other hand (that is the last hand, I think), being on second might be a distraction to the batter, although certainly you are not going to be “jockeying” on the basepaths and you certainly don’t need to have any kind of a lead since it doesn’t matter if you score on a hit.

Now, even if he can walk to third on the pitch, which was apparently the case, there is a non-zero chance that you could trip and fall and get thrown out.  I found it curious that a guy who has been playing baseball for almost 30 years would do that (take third).


#1    Lou      (see all posts) 2008/06/14 (Sat) @ 20:07

I think Dusty was trying some things today to fight the shift.  Phillips also stole second earlier while Dunn was batting, beat the throw, didn’t slide, and just ran to third (no one was covering).  Wakefield made the head’s up play and ran to third, caught the ball on the run, and beat Phillips there by a step for the tag.


#2    MGL      (see all posts) 2008/06/14 (Sat) @ 22:28

I saw that.  Of course, that play in the 9th has nothing to do with “beating the shift” since the Bosox don’t care whether Cabrera takes 3rd or even home.


#3          (see all posts) 2008/06/15 (Sun) @ 10:25

He could just as easily trip and fall going from second to third on a base hit as well.  I think 30 years teaches you that when you can take a base with 99.9% certainty, you take it - right or wrong.

As a side note, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a fair ball hit a man on third either.  “Why do they take the lead in foul territory?” was one of the first questions I remember asking my dad, and it seems pretty ubiquitous these days.


#4    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2008/06/15 (Sun) @ 11:46

If it’s the bottom half of the last inning of the game, and you are down by 2 with 2 outs and you have no runner on 1B, your chances of winning is .052.  If you make it to 3B, it is now .053.  If you are thrown out (tripping or whatever), the game is over.  So, it’s a +.001 win gain against a potential loss of .052.  That’s a 52:1 shot obviously that you better think you can make it.

All it does is basically prevent a force out at 3B, if the batter happens to get a walk.  That’s really why you get the extra +.001 wins in that situation.

(Since my charts were rounded to 3 decimal places, I’ll have to go back to the source to see what it really is to 4 decimal places.)


#5    MGL      (see all posts) 2008/06/15 (Sun) @ 16:09

All it does is basically prevent a force out at 3B, if the batter happens to get a walk.  That’s really why you get the extra +.001 wins in that situation.

I forgot about that.  I was operating on the assumption that the WE was exactly the same, which it isn’t.  So yes, as long as teh odds of tripping and falling and getting thrown out are greater than 52-1 (or whatever the true odds), then it is correct to take third.


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