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Monday, March 03, 2008
Straight poop on OF fielding
See, before you spit out your UZRs and PMRs and the like, you start with the basic information, which USSM does (click on the chart, if you can’t see it in your browser in full). Then, you take the next step, which Lookout Landing does. It’s all part of a progression as to how people think. First, you count the successes, then you give it context to other years. That’s what USSM does. Then, you add an additional context: opportunities. That’s what Lookout Landing does. Then, you refine the opportunities: that’s WOWY and TotalZone can do for you. Then, you make further refinements, and you get PMR and UZR. By the time you get to PMR and UZR, you are a believer. Until then, as long as they stand on their own, they are just a part of a puzzle.
Going straight to UZR or PMR without the other steps is like giving a 14-year old a Porsche.
The Mariner blogs inspired the Cards blog:
http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/story/2008/3/4/9548/85454
Great stuff. It’s a very basic idea, and at the same time, enlightening.
HOWEVER… MGL’s UZR has the 2005 OF as being terrible (-23 runs), while the 2007 OF was -9. (2006 was +4.)
Note: MGL doesn’t always split up players on multiple teams in the same year in multiple records. I don’t know if this affected any Cards teams.
The implication therefore is that the Cards pitchers did a horrible job in giving their OF good playable balls, and instead gave them alot of no-man’s land balls.
This is where the next step comes into play: you need one of the “heat zones” graphs that Jonathan Hale did for the strike zone, but for the OF. Exactly where were those flyballs landing out there. MGL’s data, which implicitly uses these heat zones, would indicate that they were landing in the gaps.
You can also go through David Pinto’s archives, and see how he sees the Cards outfielders.