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Monday, January 31, 2011
Someone who forecasts BEFORE something happens? It’s true!
Poz has something interesting to say about Tiger:
I never think people realize just how unlikely it is for Tiger Woods to win five more major championships. Think about Phil Mickelson for a moment. He has been on tour for 16 years, since he was 25. He has won 38 times on the PGA Tour. That’s a Hall of Fame career—Phil Mickelson is almost certainly one of the 25 greatest golfers who ever lived. He has won FOUR majors in 63 starts. Does Tiger Woods have an entire Phil Mickelson career (plus one major) left in him over the rest of his career?
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Until now at least, Tiger was head over heels above the rest of the pack on the PGA. He was WAY better than Phil was, relative to the other golfers. I think he won 30% of all tournaments he entered prior to 2010, or something like that. Now, how that translates into his chances of winning a major and thus 4 or 5 majors for the rest of his career, I don’t know. But, given his true talent a couple of years ago, I doubt that winning 4 or 5 more majors was that unlikely. Of course, that assumed that his true talent would stay relatively constant other than aging, which is not that drastic in golf, I don’t think. As well, it assumed that no other amazing talent would come along. Unfortunately (for him), upheaval in his life plus aging has perhaps derailed any reasonable chance for him to eclipse Jack’s record. Most PGA golfers seem to be humble, nice, respectful, solicitous to the crowds, etc. Tiger is not. Never liked him. There is a passage in the Scorecasting book about what Tiger’s father was quoted as saying about Tiger when he was young. It is so over the top that you have to wonder about his Dad…