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Is it possible that a pitcher with a low GB rate (high FB rate) can only survive if he doesn’t give up so many extra base hits? Or didn’t Dave Cameron have a good explanation last year that groundball pitchers who make mistake pitches get hit hard on them, or something?
My guess is that the difference is mostly a function of out percentage, not XBH as opposed to singles. I’ll bet BA on FBs also declines as FB% increases.
I also think you should include popups in this kind of analysis. Don’t FB pitchers tend to induce more popups than GB pitchers? If so, then BA, SLG, and HR rates per all flyballs would in fact be lower for FB pitchers. Excluding a subset of FBs that cannot become a hit (or HR) serves to mask some of what’s going on here.
J: I just started a new thread called “Blast from the past”. You should quite enjoy it.
"Excluding a subset of FBs that cannot become a hit (or HR) serves to mask some of what’s going on here.”
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