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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Friday, September 19, 2008

Shutup money

By Tangotiger, 02:00 PM

Say you make 100K at your job.  But, you are also a loudmouth, who negatively affects the people around you.  But, your boss finds your work indispensable.  You are offered a 5K annual bonus to shut up.  Morale shoots up, everyone is happy. 

Similarly, you are offered 105K at your job.  You are a loudmouth, who negatively affects the people around you.  But, your boss finds your work indispensable.  You will be docked 5K if you don’t shut up.  You decide to shut up.  Morale shoots up.

Adam Kennedy has one year left of a 3/10 deal.  That last year is guaranteed. Isn’t it implied that part of that 10MM is shutup money?  Whether you play or not, you are getting 3.33MM.  Can’t he shut up about not playing?  If he was being honest, he’d ask the Cardinals to be released from their obligations to pay him (if the union lets him), so he can have his unconditional waivers.  Let’s see how happy he’ll be riding the bench for 1MM instead.


#1    terpsfan101      (see all posts) 2008/09/19 (Fri) @ 14:35

If you can’t hit (Kennedy’s OPS+ = 67) and you are not that great of a defensive second-baseman to begin with, you have to be delusional to believe that you deserve more playing time. He already is playing semi-regularly. He has 340 Plate Appearances. If the Cards want to contend next year they really need to improve offensively at 2B and SS:

2B Kennedy .263 Avg, .304 OBP, .327 SLG, 1 HR, 315AB
SS Izturis .245 Avg, .307 OBP, .290 SLG, 1 HR, 383AB

Aaron Miles has done a good job with the bat this year. They should play him regularly at 2B and go find a new Shortstop.


#2    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2008/09/19 (Fri) @ 15:10

CArdinals fans think Kennedy is a slightly below average fielding 2B, but that Miles is a terrible 2B, one of the worst in the league.  Izturis is at least an above-average fielder.  And Chris Duncan needs to be traded to the AL.


#3    Colin Wyers      (see all posts) 2008/09/19 (Fri) @ 15:13

His current Marcel projection is .261/.320/.352. Who does he think the Cardinals can trade him to?


#4    terpsfan101      (see all posts) 2008/09/19 (Fri) @ 15:37

I had always assumed Miles was a good fielder. I guess I should of checked the stats and the Fan’s Scouting Report. The Hardball Times lists Miles RZR at 2B as .806 for 2008. Kennedy’s RZR at 2B is .879. If you make the cutoff point 500 defensive innings at 2B, Kennedy ranks 1st in RZR for NL second-baseman. The average RZR at 2B appears to be between .83 to .84.


#5    Melvin Nieves      (see all posts) 2008/09/19 (Fri) @ 19:28

If the Cardinals are paying good money to a player they don’t even use, don’t they also want him gone? But ther teams don’t want him for his price tag either.

Both he and the Cardinals are in a poor situation, but Kennedy is the only one still seeing his expected outcome. He still gets paid.

He (and other players who complain about playing time) have to choose between getting what he agreed to get in his contract, or some other consideration not in his contract. You don’t get both.


#6    terpsfan101      (see all posts) 2008/09/19 (Fri) @ 20:43

The Cardinals and Cubs were playing when Tangotiger posted this. Adam Kennedy started in Right Field while Miles started at Shortstop. Kennedy went 4 for 5 with a 2B, HR, 3 runs scored, and 5 RBI.


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