THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

A little off topic, but a question based on the 1st and 3rd, two outs, bottom of the 9th inning, tie game situation. First, I think it would be impossible to actually steal a base in this situation since the 1B would be playing off the bag and the runner would be given second on defensive indifference. This happens all the time; even slow runners take second.

So here’s what I wonder. Is the offense better off with that runner taking second or should he stay put? Taking second eliminates the force at that base, but it also might change how the opposing manager reacts. With the bag open, he might IBB the hitter. Depending on who’s up, this could drastically change whether that runner on third is going to score.

Any thoughts on this? Is it as simple as the runner should always take second in that situation? Should he stay at first if Great Hitter is up with Awful Hitter on deck?

In the situation where there is a great hitter up and a lousy hitter on deck I would think that the defense would walk the great hitter even if the runner on first didn’t move to second.  If walking is a good move with men on second and third, it’s just as good a move with men on first and third.

One thing that I am curious of in general about base stealing analysis.

Does it typically take into account the fact that reasonably the good base stealers are also good at taking extra bases on hits. My guess this would reduce the value of most stolen bases?

It would seem the advantage of beeing one base closer to home would be the greatest for the slowest base runners and the least for the fastest base runners,

An example (somewhat extreme perhaps):
Lets say we have a runner on second with two outs and a slow hitter at the plate.

If “Fast Freddy” is on second the breakeven point is probably very high because almost any single the hitter beats out at first he will take home on anyway.

If “Slow Sam” is at second instead the breakeven point should be significantly lower, because there will be more singles where he would have to hold up on third compared to “Fast Freddy”.

Do you know if this type of analasys has been done?

I concur with PEter/2.

Bjorn/3: yes, we’ve talked about this in the past.  David Smyth brought this up, and then I think I went through the machinations of it.  I don’t remember what I said though.  And I think we talked about this at Fanhome, so, it may take me a while to find it.  Or, I may simply have to redo the calculations.

No runner should try to steal third with two outs. The gain is much too small for the risk.  With fewer than two outs a faster runner is more likely to score on a ground ball, fly ball, wild pitch, or passed ball if he successfully steals third.

Most steals are of second and a faster runner is more likely to score from second on a single than a slower runner.  Plus, the advantage that a fast runner has over an average runner in base advancement on a hit is less than one might think.  Without doing the calculations I would estimate that there would be little difference in the break even points for the average runner that steals and the average runner overall.  It would be a complicated topic to study, but that doesn’t mean that it shouldn’t be done.

Bjorn, #3, the break even point for all potential basestealers is based on the win expectancy before and after a successful steal as well as the win expectancy if thrown out.

Obviously the runner’s speed affects those win expectancies, so the runner’s speed is, or at least should be, built in to the calculation of the BE point.

Now, if we use an “average runner” for our win expectancy numbers, the question then becomes, “Does have a fast runner, if we used the win expectancies assuming a fast runner on base, have a break even point less than, greater than, or about the same as a slow or average runner, assuming we used the proper win expectancy with them as well?”

I don’t know.  It probably depends on the outs, inning and score.  I don’t think there is any reason to assume that the BE will be higher for a faster runner.  Yes, he is more likely to advance to home (than a slower runner) if he does not steal but he is also more likely to advance to home (say on a single, or even a couple of outs if he steals with no outs) after stealing.

But, it shouldn’t be hard to figure out.  As I said, just use the proper win expectancies and see what the numbers are.