THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Awww yeah. I love this thing. Linked to it from my blog and Facebook. Also submitted my first few ballots.

It’s really difficult to rate players generically. I rated the Reds and it’s hard not to rate Votto as having good defensive skills and Renteria as poor; but we can assume if Joey could play SS halfway competently they’d move him there in a heartbeat, especially with Alonso blocked at first. All we ever see is Votto making good plays at first and Renteria not making plays at short.

Why is Renteria not making plays at SS?  He’s not moving quickly?  He doesn’t run fast?  He doesn’t throw well or strong?  All of the above?  And why is Votto making plays at 1B?  The point of this exercise is to break it down to small bits and pieces to try to isolate particular skill sets.

That said, I agree that it is difficult, which is why I appreciate the effort that people put into this.

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I always find it interesting how the voting develops.  Right out of the gate, we’ve got 10+ votes for: Redsox, Cubs, Whitesox, Dodgers, Royals, Pirates, Rays, Jays.  So, just a matter of getting that one blog, one forum, one twitter feed, to tap into.

So, keep spreading the word, and thanks!

Looking at the results for the Reds, I see that Renteria is below Votto in each of the 7 categories.  So, it won’t be possible for me to overweight one category to push Renteria above Votto, overall.

Either it’s too hard to be able to compare across positions in the manner I’m asking, or Renteria truly is a horrible fielder and would be at any position.

Ideally, this project puts everyone position-neutral, but I accept that that ideal won’t necessarily be met when looking at two extreme positions like SS and 1B.

I have filled out the Cubs form every year, after watching 120 games on TV. I am not a naive observer. And yet, each season I struggle.  I don’t know what Carlos Pena’s initial acceleration is, relative to a hypothetical average fielder at an avg position. That judgement requires a lot of abstract imagery.  Plus, I usually have seen the fielding ratings for each player, UZR, etc. So, I make my best guess, trying to ignore all that. But while filling out the form I realize that my certainty is low, other than the obvious things like G Soto is slow and T Campana is fast…

I realize that Tango has reported that the fan report stabilizes after perhaps a surprisingly small number of votes. That might mean the consensus is valuable or reliable, but I am not so sure about the former.

IMO, the best way to capitalize on MY fan observations is simply to be asked to rate the fielders on an A to F overall scale, relative to position, while trying to ignore stats and testimonials I have seen. That will probably end up similar to some combo of the B James Good Plays vs Bad Plays, which I am a fan of, at least in principle.

Thanks David for your thoughts.

My personal goals here goes beyond just getting a feel for who is considered the best, overall.

I like seeing the speed numbers and the arm numbers, the whole breakdown.  I like comparing across positions, or the same player switching positions, and see how his numbers look.

It’s more about appreciating the little things, than getting an overall number.

I like finding out who is this year’s Roger Cedeno: an incredibly fast runner, who was a horrible fielder, and that some teams still think they can “coach” him into being a respectable CF.  The Mets even hired Gary Pettis, the mother of all great CF, for that Herculean task.

According to the Fans, that guy may be Rajai Davis (though of course no one can be as bad as Cedeno).  And Tony Campana is giving a possible showing for that.  I only saw a few “highlights” of Campana, and he looks like that kid that loves to run around and hope he catches something.  Lastings Milledge of old would be in this same group as well.

So, there’s dozens of these kinds of questions that you can ask, and it’s helped by seeing the breakdowns.

Campana is a good example, David.  What would you give as his “overall” score?

Something I’ve always wondered about and maybe it’s been asked and answered, but isn’t there concern that a player’s offense is unfairly going to affect our judgment of him on defense.

I can’t speak for Dave, but I’m also a Cubs fan who watches about 150 games per year. I gave Campana ratings of great in the Ball in Flight To Fielder Reaching Ball section, but terrible in all of the Throwing to Other Fielders. He has one of the worst arms I’ve ever seen. I don’t know if you recall Jacque Jones days with the Cubs, but he routinely pounded the ball into the ground when he threw it. That’s Tony Campana except that’s as far as he can throw it.

I opted out on rating Campana in the survey. For whatever reason, I didn’t see, or notice, his OF play to any degree. Maybe I missed the few games he has started. I only remember seeing him run out a triple and thinking that he must be one of the fastest players in baseball. And he’s “white”, right--or at least he doesn’t look black.

dave/10 - I haven’t seen Campana that much, but he was one of the players I was more confident in. The guy is really fast, has a ton of range and an arm that is worse than Jaun Pierre’s. Starlin Castro is the guy I had the most trouble on.

According to the Fans this year, the three worst in arm strength belong to: Pierre, Damon, Campana.

In terms of arm accuracy, Campana is 3rd worst and Damon is 4th worst.

Hence, the reason I like the scouting report: I get a dimension to Campana that I didn’t have before, that arm wise, I have found someone who throws as bad as Damon.

What is interesting about Damon is how he has no idea how to throw a baseball.  He looks so awkward, like my friends who grew up playing soccer all their lives, and have never thrown a baseball before.  That’s Damon.  Did he have some surgery or something?

More amazing than Damon’s awkward and poor throw is Pence’s awkward and fairly *strong* throw. Has anyone watched the guy throw? It looks like he’s never actually thrown a ball before, and yet it somehow works.

I’m struggling to find a link - but I’m pretty sure Damon was a highly-rated high school quarterback and sustained a shoulder injury that caused his present noodle-armed-ness.

It’s been a bit less than a week, and we’re at 50% of the total ballots cast last year, which is great!

Right now, on the hot seat, are fans of these teams:

Cleveland Indians
Colorado Rockies
Florida Marlins
Houston Astros
Minnesota Twins
Oakland Athletics
San Diego Padres
St. Louis Cardinals

We definitely need help here, so if you follow those teams, please do your part to spread the word.