THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

JC and Forman:

http://convention.sabr.org/archive/sabr40/presentations/234-resting-the-pitcher-how-useful-are-pitch-counts-and-days-of-rest

Many individuals believe that limiting pitch counts and increasing days of rest can improve performance and reduce injuries. Though the belief that overuse can hamper pitchers is widespread, there exists little evidence that adjusting pitch counts and rest has much effect on pitcher performance. In this study, Bradbury and Forman use newly available game-level pitch count data from 1988 to 2009 to evaluate the impact of pitch counts and rest days on future performance. They discuss their employment of linear and non-linear multiple regression analysis techniques to estimate the impact of pitch counts — in recent games and cumulatively over a season — and days of rest on pitcher performances while controlling for the effects of other factors.

It will be interesting to see if they quote either of my study in The Book or Keith’s study in BBTN, which pretty much came to opposite conclusions, with the only real conclusion likely being: if you are conditioned to pitch on 3-days rest, you’ll pitch better on 3-days rest, and if you are conditioned for 4, you’ll pitch better on 4.

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Kirk Ruetuer, best-fielding pitcher:

http://convention.sabr.org/archive/sabr40/presentations/238-pitchers-as-fielders-a-quantitative-analysis-or-why-kirk-rueter-is-the-best-fielding-pitcher-of-all-time

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Using Marcel to figure out when there’s been a shift in eras:

http://convention.sabr.org/archive/sabr40/presentations/232-using-marcel-the-monkey-for-year-to-year-discontinuities-in-major-league-baseball-performance

I like that, if for the only reason that a professor is going to say “Marcel the Monkey forecasting system” and “tangotiger” and still have his credentials intact.

If Kirk Reuter is the fielding pitcher of all time, it’s only because Jack Lazorko didn’t pitch long enough.  That guy wasn’t much of a pitcher, but an NHL team should have offered him a chance to be a goalie.

I remember Lazorko.  I think he had 5 assists or putouts in one game if I remember.

Didn’t think I could find it so easily.... I remembered he was with the Angels, I looked for a game where he gave up alot of GB, and then came here:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CAL/CAL198707050.shtml

One putout, five assists.

If we were to judge fielding based on visual observation and for one game, then Lazorko would get an “80” on a 20-80 scale for fielding. 

UZR and WOWY and TZ might, at best, after one game, give him a 52.