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Thursday, February 05, 2009

Sabermetric greats unrecognized by the mainstream

By Tangotiger, 10:59 AM

If you put Poz and Neyer together, you have the closest thing this generation has to Bill James as a baseball writer.  And if you remove the sabermetric angle, you’d have to put Neyer and James together to match Poz.  These three guys should really get married already. 

Anyway, Poz‘s latest inspired this post.  And since America loves lists, give me your ten best MLB players that sabermetrics recognizes, but the mainstream doesn’t.  Excluded from your list is:
- anyone in the Hall of Fame (Molitor, Boggs, etc)
- anyone who received at least 50% + 1 votes for the Hall of Fame (Blyleven, etc)
- anyone still active or has not yet appeared on a Hall of Fame ballot (Beltran, Larkin, etc)
- born before Willie Mays (Hodges, etc)

I mean, I might as well call this The Tim Raines Award.  Ok, I will.  In the running for The Tim Raines Award, and not limited to these players, in no particular order:
Tim Raines
Dwight Evans
Darrell Evans
Lou Whitaker
Alan Trammell (I feel sorry for Tigers fans)
Rusty Staub
Dick Allen
Albert Belle
Bobby Grich

Dennis Martinez
Orel Hershiser
Dave Stieb
Dan Quisenberry
Bret Saberhagen
David Cone
Bob Welch
Steve Rogers
Jimmy Key

Nominate your players, and then I’ll create a 5-man ballot.  I’ll probably exclude Raines since the award is named after him.


#1    Jeff      (see all posts) 2009/02/05 (Thu) @ 12:18

Rusty Staub
Lou Whitaker
Alan Trammell
Amos Otis (2nd greatest Royal of All-Time)
Dave Stieb


#2    devil_fingers      (see all posts) 2009/02/05 (Thu) @ 12:21

Hmmm… Jeff took one of my favorites, but I have to say that many of the others are better anyway. Hard to go with just five, so I’ll go with my “gut.”

Darrell Evans
Bobby Grich
Lou Whitaker
Alan Trammell
Dan Quisenberry

If I could nominate 6, Amos Otis would be on there.


#3    Patriot      (see all posts) 2009/02/05 (Thu) @ 12:22

Tim Raines, Dick Allen, Reggie Smith, Rusty Staub, Ted Simmons, Darrell Evans, Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, Dwight Evans, Jimmy Wynn

Rick Reuschel and Jerry Koosman added as pitchers (you can see my career value focus coming through)


#4    Jay      (see all posts) 2009/02/05 (Thu) @ 12:36

Keith Hernandez.

MVP, 2-time Silver Slugger, 5-time All-Star (not completely underrated with those credentials but significantly overlooked on the H.o.F. balloting).

.296/.384/.436 over 17 seasons.

2-time WS Champion, .265/.370/.359 (not great) in 5 post-season series (30 games).

Generally regarded as one of the best defensive 1B ever and certainly of his generation.


#5    Jay      (see all posts) 2009/02/05 (Thu) @ 12:39

Also, Ken Singleton.

Career 132 OPS+.

.282/.388/.436 in 15 seasons.

3-time All-Star.

1263 BB & 1246 K in his career.

.333/.391/.421 in 4 post-season series.


#6    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2009/02/05 (Thu) @ 12:44

Ok, to my list add:
Ken Singleton
Jimmy Wynn
Ted Simmons
Reggie Smith
Amos Otis
Keith Hernandez

Rick Reuschel
Jerry Koosman


#7    rfs1962      (see all posts) 2009/02/05 (Thu) @ 13:00

I’ll second Jim Wynn. I had no idea how good he was back then. And add Jose Cruz the elder.


#8    Guy      (see all posts) 2009/02/05 (Thu) @ 13:40

I don’t think you can argue Keith H. was unappreciated by the mainstream sports media, or by fans (unless you want to make the case he elongs in the HOF).  He was and is very well regarded, and his fielding excellence often noted.

Dewey Evans is high on my list, especially in wake of Rice’s admission to Hall (while Evans never got a serious look).

Tango:  just curious, why exclude pre-Mays players?


#9    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2009/02/05 (Thu) @ 14:01

When I was writing out the names, I intended to write out only ten names.  By the time I got to #9, I noticed that all of those was from when I started following sports (around Dec 31, 1975), and they were all nonpitchers.

So, with such a heavy bias, I figured I’d put in a date limit.  When I set my “eras”, I like to use Babe Ruth (b1895), Joe D (b1914), or Mays/Mantle (b1931) as my starting points.  I went with Mays here, so that I also would not disproportioantely exclude Blacks.


#10    lar      (see all posts) 2009/02/05 (Thu) @ 15:02

Well, I have to agree with a lot of the names that have been mentioned so far. I don’t know if I believe all of these people are actual Hall of Famers, but I agree that they are all seriously under-appreciated to some degree:
Dwight Evans
Darrell Evans
Alan Trammell
Lou Whitaker
Bobby Grich
Tim Raines
Will Clark
Dick Allen
Ted Simmons

Dave Steib
Orel Hershiser
Dan Quisenberry
Bret Saberhagen

Here’s a list that I put together of players with the most Win Shares who received the fewest HOF votes. A lot of the players mentioned here are on it. I limited it to players receiving votes since 1950 because of all the weird voting in the early days, but it might be interesting to limit it to players since Mays, like we’re doing here: http://wezen-ball.blogspot.com/2009/01/high-win-shares-low-hall-of-fame-votes.html


#11    Guy      (see all posts) 2009/02/05 (Thu) @ 15:06

I’ll nominate Jack Clark and Pedro Guerrero.


#12    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2009/02/05 (Thu) @ 16:41

Here is the updated list:
Tim Raines
Dwight Evans
Darrell Evans
Lou Whitaker
Alan Trammell (I feel sorry for Tigers fans)
Rusty Staub
Dick Allen
Albert Belle
Bobby Grich
Ken Singleton
Jimmy Wynn
Ted Simmons
Reggie Smith
Amos Otis
Keith Hernandez
Jose Cruz
Will Clark
Jack Clark
Pedro Guerrero

Dennis Martinez
Orel Hershiser
Dave Stieb
Dan Quisenberry
Bret Saberhagen
David Cone
Bob Welch
Steve Rogers
Jimmy Key
Rick Reuschel
Jerry Koosman


#13          (see all posts) 2009/02/05 (Thu) @ 18:58

Frank White.

If Maz is in the real Hall, the Frank White has to go in any other.


#14    Ken Arneson      (see all posts) 2009/02/05 (Thu) @ 19:09

If you’re going to have Bob Welch on this list, you might as well have Vida Blue, too.  Pretty similar career numbers; I think Blue’s are slightly better.


#15    KJOK      (see all posts) 2009/02/05 (Thu) @ 19:34

Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmeiro
Fred McGriff
Norm Cash
Willie Randolph
Graig Nettles
Ken Boyer
Joe Torre (Player)
Bill Freehan (Another Tiger!)
Fred Lynn
Cesar Cedeno
Brett Butler
Albert Belle
Frank Howard
Brian Downing
Rocky Colavito
Bobby Bonds
Tony Fernandez
Jim Fregosi

Billy Pierce
Luis Tiant


#16    redsox9322      (see all posts) 2009/02/05 (Thu) @ 22:37

using Sean Smith’s list of players with over 60 WAR (click name), I found:

Willie Davis
Sal Bando


#17          (see all posts) 2009/02/06 (Fri) @ 02:21

I don’t have any players to add, but I should not that if Bill James is deserving of the Hall (according to Poz), Pete Palmer and John Thorn should also at least have some consideration, if not induction alongside Mr. James.


#18    Rally      (see all posts) 2009/02/06 (Fri) @ 10:31

I would add Willie Davis.  He’s unrecognized by the Hall, and by most Sabermetric types.

Not saying he necessarily should be in the Hall, but there have been worse selection, even recently.  Davis’ batting stats suffer from a combination of playing his best years in the 1960’s, and in the best pitcher’s park of the time.  He was also a very good center fielder, and an outstanding baserunner.


#19    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2009/02/06 (Fri) @ 11:10

Updated list:
Tim Raines
Rusty Staub
Dick Allen
Albert Belle
Ken Singleton
Keith Hernandez
Jose Cruz
Will Clark
Jack Clark
Pedro Guerrero
Norm Cash
Frank Howard
Brian Downing
Rocky Colavito
Bobby Bonds

Dwight Evans
Jimmy Wynn
Reggie Smith
Amos Otis
Fred Lynn
Cesar Cedeno
Brett Butler
Willie Davis
Eric Davis

Darrell Evans
Lou Whitaker
Alan Trammell (I feel sorry for Tigers fans)
Bobby Grich
Ted Simmons
Frank White
Willie Randolph
Graig Nettles
Ken Boyer
Joe Torre (Player)
Bill Freehan
Tony Fernandez
Jim Fregosi

Dennis Martinez
Orel Hershiser
Dave Stieb
Bret Saberhagen
David Cone
Bob Welch
Steve Rogers
Jimmy Key
Rick Reuschel
Jerry Koosman
Billy Pierce
Luis Tiant
Dan Quisenberry

(No McGwire, because he has a defacto ban among the mainstream.  I also added Eric Davis.)

Boy, lots more than I would have thought.  A lot of these players are simply because of “short careers”.  So, I don’t know if they “sabermetric greats”, so much as “mainstream prefers accumulators of counting stats”.  I’ll try to break them down a little later, trying to separate players who are not currently recognized because of “hidden talent” bias, as opposed to “smaller counting number” bias.

Basically, anyone with under 7500 PA or 250 wins doesn’t meet the threshhold for the HOF, simply because of the counting-number bias.  It won’t have anything to do with the hidden-talent bias that sabermetrics uncovers.

Great job guys… thanks.


#20    Tangotiger      (see all posts) 2009/02/06 (Fri) @ 12:09

Post 16 was queued for moderation and is now active.


#21    Blackadder      (see all posts) 2009/02/07 (Sat) @ 03:28

Last year, the Hall of Merit voters ranked the players in the Hall of Merit players who were not in the hall of fame.  Here is the list for players who retired after 1987:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/hall_of_merit/discussion/election_results_blyleven_and_raines_are_deemed_the_cream_of_this_crop_by_u/

And for those who’s careers spanned 1943 to 1987, not all of whom are eligible for this:

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/hall_of_merit/discussion/election_results_grich_and_santo_are_tops_for_group_2/

It looks like Tango has already added everyone on these lists who is eligible, but I thought this could be information that those interesting in this could find interesting.


#22    brent      (see all posts) 2009/02/08 (Sun) @ 21:02

Dave Parker, Tom Henke


#23    Cooper      (see all posts) 2009/02/10 (Tue) @ 13:05

Dave Concepcion?


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