THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Thursday, September 02, 2010

Ryan Howard: Mr September

ESPN’s Mark Simon is carrying the WPA torch:

From 2007 to 2009, Howard not only has the highest Win Probability Added in September/October, but he dwarfs the second-rated player on the list--Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols. It’s not even close. That’s true, even if you stretch the data back to 2006.

Sabrmetrician Bill James awarded Howard his “Clutch Player of the Year” award in 2009. James knows of what he speaks.

Tom Tango, the same person who devised the Win Probability Added formula, also has a formula for “Clutch Rating.” In figuring a player’s clutch rating, you look foremost at situations that are high-leverage, in which the game is on the line in that turn.