THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Nate takes a look at Ryan Howard:
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=127

I’ve got Howard as similar to Miguel Cabrera as a hitter.  Overall, Howard is +4.0 to +4.5 WAR.  Remembering also that Howard still has 5 years before he gets his FA ticket, I’ve got Howard, at +4.0 with aging as a pre-free agent total of 5/27.  At 4.5 WAR and no aging, he’s 5/47.  He’s probably close to the 5/40 level.  I’ve got his first free agent year as worth 20MM.

So, look for Howard to sign a 5/40, or 6/60 deal, if the Phillies are going long-term.

Really, really back luck for him that he came up so late.  In essence, Phillies gave his 2012 money to Jim Thome.

I don’t think Howard was held back or anything.  He was promising, but didn’t show the big time bat until 2004.

Best case scenario would have been to have been called up halfway through the 2004 season and become a regular in 2005.  He would hit the free agent market one year earlier that way.

Why would he need to show a “big-time bat”?  To make the majors, you just need to be better than the last guy.  You can hold a guy back one year for development purposes, so that you are one year away from being a regular.

If a guy is an MVP-type in 2006, he was likely at least an average player in 2003.

He was in rookie ball in 2001, and here he is in A ball in 2002:
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/statistics/2002/10458.shtml

Why did he get 550 PA in A ball?  He was the best hitter on the team, getting 30% of his team’s HR.  He should have been in AA in 2002.

Then in another A league, he got another 550 PA in 2003, and was the league MVP.  Again easily the best hitter on his team, this time getting 43% of his team’s HR.  In 2003, he should have been on the opening day roster, Thome not withstanding.

Then in 2004, in AA ball, and another MVP!

Rookie of the year, in half a year, in MLB in 2005.

If a guy is say +4 wins above average with the bat in 2007, he’s pretty much a league average hitter in 2002, at worst.

Since the time of integration, the oldest Hall of Famer to get to 1000 PA was Carlton Fisk.  That was in 1973.  In 1972, he was 4th for MVP and ROY.

Before him were Boggs (in 1983), Puckett (1985), Ozzie (1979), Schmidt (1974), and Stargell (1965). 

Unless Ichiro or Edgar beats him to it, if Ryan Howard makes the HOF, he will be the *oldest* post-integration HOF nonpitcher to get to 1000 PA.

If that’s not a testament to him being held back, I don’t know what is.

(In the post-integration world, the youngest were Mantle, Yount, Kaline and Hank Aaron.  I’ll leave it to others to establish who was the exact youngest at the time they got their 1000th PA.)

Here are the oldest HOF to get to 1000 PA, since Babe Ruth was born:

Age year Player
32 1951 Irvin Monte (Negro League)

29 1927 Terry Bill
29 1948 Robinson Jackie (Negro League)
29 1950 Campanella Roy (Negro League)

28 1930 Averill Earl

27 1926 Combs Earle
27 1925 Cuyler Kiki
27 1932 Ferrell Rick

27 2006 Howard Ryan

The “year” represents the year he got his 1000th PA.  Age is the year minus birth year.

***

The average HOF got his 1000th PA at age 24, meaning you expect a star to break into at least a semi-regular role at age 23.

TT,

On the Ryan Howard contract, the rumor is that the Howard camp is asking for $150 million for 7 years, and the Phils are willing to go $100 for seven (according to Stark on ESPN insider, whatever that’s worth).

If true, are both camps nuts?  Haven’t they looked at Fielder and Vaughn at age 33?

As I mentioned in my email, I think the D is more like -1.5 WAR than -2, and that 85% time is a bit too conservative in terms of playing time.

With regard to how he got scr-ewed by Eddie Wade, you’re right in some respects, but Howard really didn’t start hitting well until his year in AA Reading in 2004, and Thome was in full block mode then.  In 2005, Wade and company let Thome continue to play for half a season with a bad injury, and cost Howard about 1/2 year service time.  It’s not as bad a scr-ewing as Utley got being asked to repeat AAA after tearing the league up after switching positions (a failed experiment) the previous year. 

Phils are slow to promote prospects, but Howard’s insanely high K totals in the minors had them befuddled about his talent.  He really didn’t start hitting breaking balls or LH pitchers until 2004, so maybe he’s a unique case where he really was moved appropriately through the system given Thome’s presence.  Howard had a bad junior year in college (reportedly due to draft anxiety), and was only OK in rookie ball.  he spent a full season in low-A hitting reasonably well (.825 OPS), then won the FSL MVP with an .883 OPS, still not outclassing the league.  Then came the 2004 break-out in Reading.

As for Ryan Howard, you don’t have to outclass a league.  There are 150 rookies every year in MLB.  You just need to be the best 1 or 2 players on your team to be called up, and Ryan Howard was easily that.  I went through his case last year. There’s no question that he was very late in being called up by at least a year, probably 2.

Being scared of strikeouts is a copout.

I agree with phillychuck, Howard probably lost only 1/2 to 1 year because of the Phils/Thome.

He played well in 2003, but the slugging % was only a little over .500.  And that was in A ball.  It would be extremely unusual to take a hitter from A one year and make him a major league starter the next year. At that point he was a very good prospect but no sure thing.

I would have done exactly what the Phillies did, promote him to the next level and see how he develops.  Howard improved dramatically in 2004.  His MLEs show him as a guy who can handle major league pitching, but you don’t know that until after you see him hit AA pitching.  His MLEs from the year before do not show him as major league ready.

At this point, if the Phillies did not have Thome, or had a DH spot, they could have given Howard a midseason promotion and hand him the starting job in 2005.  That would have given him one more year of service time than he actually has.

You can’t get 2 service years unless you hand him the major league job at the start of 2004, and given the information available at the time, it would have been a highly questionable decision.

Bumping from last year.  To reiterate post 39:

He had over 1000 PA in TWO seasons at A ball, the first of which he was his team’s best hitter, and the second of which he was MVP.  Being MVP in A ball is the worst thing you can do for a hitter, since he’s clearly outclassing his competition that he should be moved up way before that happens.  That was 2002 and 2003.  In 2004, he was MVP in AA ball!  Having TWO MVP seasons is the mark of a player being held back, especially at his late age.  I don’t mind seeing two MVP seasons in the minors if the guy is 19 and 20.  But, he was born in 1979, making his second MVP when he was 25 years old!  And even after all that he was called up in mid 2005 to be ROY.

Do you know how late he was called?  There were FIFTY players born in 1980 or later who had at least 100 PA through 2004.  Pujols had 2728 PA.  After him are Cesar Izturis, Carl Crawford, Hank Blalock, Sean Burroughs, Rocco Baldelli, Mark Texeiria, Miguel Cabrera, Felipe Lopez, Austin Kearns, Omar Infante, Bobby Crosby, Laynce Nix, Wily Mo Pena, Chad Tracy, and Jose Reyes each with over 500 PA.  Over 400 gives us Rios, Holliday, Brandon Phillips, Morneau, and Jose Castillo.

Is someone going to argue that the resume of those guys through 2003 justified them getting the chances that Howard didn’t get?

As post 41 shows, what has happened to Ryan Howard has last happened with the slave players over 50 years ago.

Anyone arguing that Howard was not held back to a significant extent is not looking at it from the historical perspective or the contemporary perspective.

http://mets.scout.com/a.z?s=228&p=8&c=1&nid=1776673

2003
# Was named the MVP of the Florida State League and fell 7 RBI short of winning the league’s triple crown.
# Recipient of the Paul Owens Award for being the best player in the Phillies minor league organization.
# Named the third best prospect in the Phillies organization by Baseball America.

2004
# Played in the Arizona Fall League, hitting 3-24-.331 for Phoenix. Was named the fifth best prospect in the AFL by Baseball America.
# Played at three different levels - Reading, Scranton and Philadelphia - hitting a combined 48-136-.290.
# Named the Paul Owens Award winner as the top player in the Phillies organization.

Without saying the word “strikeouts”, why was this player in A ball in 2003 at the age of 24, and in AA ball in 2004 at the age of 25?  And still had to wait for an injury to Jim Thome to come up in the middle of 2005? 

You can’t receive the award for best prospect for your organization at age 24, and still be in A ball! 

That resume is simply too overwhelming.

MLB failed Ryan Howard, and now the CBA is failing him.  The NHL rule of being a free agent at age 27, regardless of service time, should be adopted by MLB.  If not 27, then 28, maybe 29.  Being declared a free agent at age 32 is ridiculous.

While the Phillies may have been stupid, I doubt they were actively discouraging, and part of Howard’s delayed call-up has to do with the fact that he didn’t have the defensive prowess to move off of 1B.  That’s his own shortcoming as a player. Combined with some bad luck (Thome), you have the reason he came up late.

I don’t see that MLB failed Ryan Howard, although you can make an argument that the CBA did.

The Phillies should not have signed Thome.  And, given that they signed Thome, they should have traded Ryan Howard.  Ryan Howard was basically treated as an insurance policy.  The Phillies (maybe not MLB) failed him.

This is like Edgar Martinez, one of the best hitters of our generation, except that guy came up as a 3B.  Edgar will be prevented from making the Hall because he won’t have the counting numbers in his missing years.

***

Basically, if you can’t call someone up by the time he turns 24, offer him in a trade.

The peak age of a hockey player is very close to that of a baseball player.  And there is no such thing as a “24 year old prospect” in hockey.  Hockey players come into their own at ages 18 through 22.

MLB must be overfilling with talent that they can let quality players stay in the minors as long as they do these days.  Expand to 40 teams already.

By keeping Howard in the minor leagues they now will have him on the cheap for his prime years. It makes sense if you have a good player (Thome) already filling that spot on the field. It’s not fair to Howard, but it seems obvious why the Phillies did it.

Its in the best interests of the Phillies, nobody is arguing about that. 

I agree, Tango, that he should not have had to do two full years at in A and A+ levels.  He could have been moved much more aggressively.  He could have split A/A+ at age 22 in 2002, and then AA/AAA in 2003.  Its an open question how he would have done facing more advanced competition at that time.

But I disagree that he was likely an average MLB player in 2003.  You are basing that on his future performance, which the Phillies and nobody else could have known.  With his glove and position, Howard has to be a +2.0 win hitter to be average, and an average hitter to be MLB replacement level.

His offense took a huge jump in 2004, perhaps he was just a bit unlucky in 2003, but how do the Phillies know that before they see his 2004?

I looked for comparables: 2002-2007, 300 or more AB in the FSL, age 22-24, at least 15 homers and an .850 OPS.  Howard is at 23 HR, 888 OPS, right in the middle of that pack.  The others:

Jason Dubois 2002
Josh Kreuzer 2007
Brandon Sing 2004
Raul Tablado 2004
Sergio Pedroza 2007
Andrew Wilson 2005
Allen Craig 2007
Pat Magness 2002
Danilo Sanchez 2005
Josh Willingham 2002
Anthony Ragliani 2005
Delwyn Young 2004
Jacob Butler 2007
Cody Ehlers 2006
Kevin Collins 2005

16 players.  Excluding the 4 who did it last year (none of whom are considered guys who deserve major league jobs in 2008 as far as I know), that list is Ryan Howard, Josh Willingham, and 10 guys who weren’t all that good.

Of the 16 Howard is 9th in OPS.  AS for his Baseball America ratings, I see he’s listed as the 10th best 1B prospect that year.  The 10:

1 Kotchman
2 Jason Stokes
3 James Loney
4 Prince Fielder
5 Adrian Gonzalez
6 Craig Brazell
7 Adam LaRoche
8 Larry Broadway
9 Michael Aubrey
10 Ryan Howard

He’s a prospect, but not a can’t miss prospect.  He was the FSL MVP, but for a player’s stats to scream “should be in the majors now” in that league his stats should look like Albert Pujols’ MLB stats.  They didn’t, they looked like Paul Konerko’s

Yes, Howard should have been given chances at higher levels sooner, but I stand by my position:

Howard coming into 2004 had not shown he belonged in the major leagues.  He did show he belonged in mid-2004, and got a job there one year later.

Good job on the research.

We at least agree that he should have been in the bigs at least no later than mid-04.  He actually came up in mid-05, but *only* because Thome went down.  He might only have come up to start (for some team) in the beginning of 2006.

In order to counteract your punch (that is, should be have been in the big to at least start 2004 in the bigs, if not start 2003.

***

Now, you are right that I am working backwards, but has it ever happened that someone performed as he did in 2005/06 and was not major-league ready to start in the year before (2004)?  I’m contending that whether it’s in the stats, or the scouts, it should have been a given that he’d be in the majors to start.  He would have to have an enormous jump in performance or batting approach to do what he did.

Anyway, good job!

Cut myself off…

In order to counteract your punch (that is, should be have been in the big to at least start 2004 in the bigs, if not start 2003), I need to do further research.

Regarding trying to trade Howard:  According to rumor, Fast Ed Wade tried to trade him in 2004, to the Pirates, for EITHER Josh Fogg or Kip Wells.  Pirates turned him down.

Howard was not perceived by any major league team to have much value after the FSL season, and at mid-season 2004 the Pirates couldn’t see themselves trading AAAA pitching trash for him.  Later in the season Ed wanted to try to trade him again, but (Phils owner) Mongomery allegedly blocked the trade.

Phils assistant GM Mike Arbuckle on why Howard was hard to trade in 2004:  “I know this is tough for the player, but it’s good for the club. I wish we had the same situation at four other positions. It’s comforting to know Ryan is sitting here. If you move a guy like him, you have to get a lot back. You probably want to send him to the other league so you don’t face him all the time. And you probably want to get a player with a similar ceiling at a similar age, not a rent-a-player or a guy two years from free agency. There aren’t many guys in that category--we weren’t receiving what we considered fair offers.”

These are the same Phillies that also messed up with Placido Polanco (over David Bell!), one of the Official Infielders of The Book.

Thanks for the info, by the way.  Very fascinating.

Howard

In 04, in 188 PA, he was bad: -22 per 150 and an OPS of .666 and an OPS+ of 88.  (These are the major league equivalencies.)

In 05, he was lights out in 246 PA: +51, 1.008, and 133.

These are AA and AAA only.

So, for 430 PA, with weighting (04 weighted 80% of 05), we have a combined +23 (lwts per 630 PA), .878 OPS, and 116 OPS+, which is a very good line at ages 25 and 26!  Of course, he ended up performing a lot better in 06 and 07 than his projection would have indicated, but a +23 MLE in 430 PA makes you one of the, if not THE, top hitting prospects in baseball, based on numbers only.  Even guys like Bruce, Votto, Longoria, and Rasmus are not near this level, although Bruce was a +19, I think, in MLE lwts last year.

Actually, the best MLE lwts last year, min 300 PA, were:

Joe Dillon (32 years old): +16 06: dnp 05: +21
Shelley Duncan: +26 06: -13 05: -20
Headley: +22 06: dnp 05: dnp
Myrow: (31 years old??): +24 06: only 57 PA 05: -5
Steven Pearce: +19 06: dnp
Jorge Piedra: +19 06: -34 in 153 PA 05: -13
Ryan Raburn: +21 06: +10 05: -23
Soto: +25 (wow, and a catcher!) 06: -26 05: -33

In 06:

Bocachica: +30 07: +22 05: dnp
Burnham: +18 07: +3 05: dnp
Cust: +29 07: +32 in 100 PA 05: -14
S. Hairston: +18 07: dnp 05: +3
Kemp: +19 07: +2 174 PA 05: dnp
Kendrick: +24 07: 54 PA 05: +15
Kouzmanoff: +48 (wow!) 07: dnp 05: dnp
Adam Lind: +16 07: -8 in 187 PA 05: dnp
Josh Phelps: +18 07: dnp 05: -7
Carlos Ruiz +20 (also a catcher!) 07: dnp 05: -11
Sledge: +19 07: 30 PA 05: dnp
Luis Terrero: +26 07: 67 PA 05: 32 PA
K. Witt (30 years old) +17 07: dnp 05: dnp

05

Daubach: (whatever happened to him?) +27 06: +3 07: dnp
Matt Diaz: +19 06: dnp 07: dnp
Joe Dillon: +21 (wow, two years on this list!) 06: dnp 07: +15
Brad Eldred: +15 06: 71 PA 07: -35
Huber: +19 06: -5 07:-9
Jeff Liefer (30 years old): +17 06: dnp 07: dnp
T. Linden: +19 06: -3 07: 57 PA
Kevin Orie: (33 years old!) +32 06: dnp 07: dnp
Petagine: (our old AAAA friend) +40 06: dnp 07: dnp
Randy Ruiz: +20 06: +4 07: 0
Rick Short: +29 06: dnp 07: dnp
Thames: +43 (wow!) 06: dnp 07: dnp

You gotta wonder why some teams schlep out some of the poor hitting DH’s they do, while some of these guys are stuck in the minors.  Some of them appear to be one hit wonders, but it looks like some of them can hit, like Joe Dillon and Randy Ruiz.

“dnp” means did not play (in the minors).

MGL, I think you must have made a mistake with Howard, AA, 2004.  He had over 400 PA:
http://minors.baseball-reference.com/teams.cgi?yid=2004&lid=EAS&tid=REA

Plus another 100 in AAA that year.  And a bit with the Phillies.

And was easily the best hitter on the minor league team.  He was MVP of his league.  All his AA and AAA stats look similar.  Was there some godawful park factor at play here?

My contention with Howard is that his super high K rate kept his prospect status low.

Yeah, that’s weird.  He did have lots of PA and had monster numbers.  I’ll have to check my database.  I had problems with 2004 before, for some reason.

Yup, I screwed up.  For some reason, I was using a mid-season, as of May 29, minor league batting database.  I’ll have to redo.  Looking at his raw stats in 04, though, I’m sure his MLE’s were great.  I would be shocked and disappointed if his K rate reduced his prospect status.  The guy was a monster in the minors.

Well, RAlly and I talked about this in the blog here before.  He made a convincing case that as far as Baseball America was concerned, he was simply just another masher like many other prospects, and nothing great, unlike all the awards he was winning.

I think it’s impossible that someone that was Rookie of the Year at his advanced age and MVP in his first full season could possibly have been anything other than great in his two seasons preceding his ROY, that at least at the scouting level, he must have stood out.  It’s not like he simply turned a corner when he hit the bigs.

And the only reason he could possibly have not been a top prospect is because of all those Ks.

OK, in 2004, Howard had 553 PA in AA and AAA.  His MLE OPS was .778, OPS+, 103, and his MLE lwts was +1.  Not as good as I thought, but combine that with his +51 in 05, and you have a weighted (by year and PA) average MLE lwts of +19, pretty darn good at his age.

The best MLE’s in 04 (ignore the ones above) were:

Cervenak: +16
Church: +24
Dillon: +18
Jacobsen: +28
Kotchman: +20
Kubel: +26
Morneau: +17
Pascucci: +19
Pickering: +34
Sutton: +36
Willingham +20
Wright: +24

7 of these guys went on to become very good major league hitters.