THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Melky is the veteran and you need that presence in the line up.

Melky has been hot lately so he is going to play the hot hand, hey that’s what his predecessor does.

Gardner has been in a bit of a slump since he came back from the DL.

Over the course of the season their wOBA has been equal, so it is a wash.

Mix and match any of the above as you see fit.

Have there been any studies as to the degree to which defense can be leveraged based on opponent (or pitcher for that matter)?  It seems obvious that defense would matter more if your opponents hit more balls in play and/or your pitcher induces more balls in play, but I don’t recall seeing this difference quantified.

Gardner has more range, Melky the stronger (though not accurate this year) arm.  Melky has more power, Gardner has put up a better OBP in limited action.  Gardner also broke his thumb this year.

Assuming Gardner is fully recovered, I’d like him to get a couple of starts.  He is the better overall defender and the offense is basically a wash.  Now that they’ve added Guzman to the roster, you have a dedicated pinch-runner on the bench (Gardner’s apparent role in the ALDS). 

Girardi doesn’t seem to have the same weakness for veterans that Torre had, but I suppose it’s possible he thinks Melky’s experience counts for something.  Maybe he overrates Melky’s arm (fearing the Angels will take extra bases at will if Damon & Gardner are both out there).  I don’t know.

1) Forgetting UZR for a second, Girardi himself believes that Gardner is the better fielder. When Gardner comes into the game to pinch run, he takes over in CF and Melky moves to left.

2) Gardner’s speed can be leveraged as a pinch runner late in the game. Their difference in terms of overall talent is small, with Gardner possibly being slightly better. But having Gardner on the bench allows him to use Gardner on the bases when it matters most.

3) Gardner might get some starts in this series. The Yankees left Hinske off the ALCS roster in favor of the Freddy Guzman. Guzman is purely a running-threat (career .704 OPS in the minors through age 28), so he can now be used as the pinch running guy, allowing Gardner to start without hurting the speed off the bench.

4) Gardner has a very good arm. From watching, it looks to be at least average strength and above-average accuracy, and his ARM rating from UZR is 3.0 RAA this season, and 7.9 in his short career.

Brett Gardner- 2.1 WAR
Melky Cabrera- 1.6 WAR

Brett Gardner- .337 wOBA
Melky Cabrera- .331 wOBA

Brett Gardner- 12.6 Career RngR in 936 innings
Melky Cabrera- -14.8 Career RngR in 4593 innings

Thank you so much for posting my email as I’m glad to see the opinions of readers that use advanced/updated methods to analyze and discuss the game.

@mickeyg #2.  I have no idea if it has been quantified but as you stated, I think common sense would dictate that it’s more important against a team like the Angels.  The more opportunities there are in the outfield, the greater the chance to expose a weaker defense.

Dan #4: Great call that Girardi already acknowledges that Gardner is the better fielder based upon where they play when they are both in the field.

I’d be disappointed if Gardner doesn’t get some starts now that Guzman is on the roster.  For the ALDS (when Gardner was the only base stealer on the bench), I see the two of them as close enough that it made sense to use Gardner’s greater value off the bench to resolve the decision (after all, Posada and Matsui should not be allowed to run for themselves in a key late inning spot and several other players aren’t nearly as fast as Gardner).

One more thing… Gardner replaced Melky in center for defense in the 8th or 9th inning tonight.

Now the Burnett is on the mound, his “ability” to walk a lot of batters will put Angels on the base paths all day.  I think it’s even more important that Gardner play in center field.  However, since Molina will be the catcher, Girardi will play Melky for his home run power, even though Gardner was the more productive offensive player.

Happy about the win, but I still hate poor decisions in the face of compelling evidence.

When Melky had regular rest, before Gardner’s injury, Melky had some 10 points of OBP less, and 30 points of SLG more. Gardner is better base-runner. Gardner is better player, because of his defense, but not better hitter. When Melky isn’t slumping, he can work a walk and hit for a bit of power.
Question about Melky: his projections have to include his slumps, of course. If, hypothetically, we conclude that his slumps are solely because of physical and mental fatigue of playing every day, should we say that, when he gets regular rest, his good numbers are more representative than his overall numbers? (I know it’s almost impossible to be reasonably certain of something like that.)

a LOT of Yankee fans think Gardner’s season is a fluke.  his swing looks terrible and his minor league #s are unimpressive.  and there’s somethign to be said for having the better defense/possible PR guy on the bench.  I’d still start him against lefties, though, since he has no power anyway and Melky loses all his power batting righthanded.

Minor League career at each level.
Player A:
AAA:.280/.391/.385
AA:.286/.371/.367
A: .323/.433/.418

Player B:
AAA:.298/.360/.380
AA: .347/.422/.491
A: .299/.379/.418

They look pretty similar to me, outside of the blip in AA performance. Player B played those levels a year ahead of player A (they’re born less than 3 weeks apart), so that must be taken into account, but doesn’t change things too much. I will accept that B is slightly better than A in performance overall, but it’s not a huge difference IMO. Player A is Brett Gardner, and player B is Boston Red Sox dream-boy Jacoby Ellsbury. Boston fans gushed over Ellsbury when he came up, so I don’t see a reason for Yankee fans to think that A) his MiLB numbers were unimpressive or B) he’s a fluke.

@#12: “Boston fans gushed over Ellsbury when he came up, so I don’t see a reason for Yankee fans to think that A) his MiLB numbers were unimpressive or B) he’s a fluke.”

A) Ellsbury (1st round draft pick) has always been projected as a better potential major league player than Gardner (3rd round draft pick), which, at their career level, should weigh about as heavily as minor league numbers.

B) Boston fans need to get a grip. Their relatively unjustified gushing over Ellsbury is no reason for Yankee fans to get excited about anything.

I think the pitcher is more important than the opposing team when looking at BIP.  Someone like Burnett (8.5 k/9, 4.2 bb/9), for instance, makes defense less important that someone like pettitte (6.4 k/9, 3.5 bb/9), although probably not by much in this instance.