THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

The link might not be working

http://playahardnine.wordpress.com/2010/09/12/a-run-expectancy-look-at-tlrs-bunts/

In the link in the main post there is an extra space

And thanks to Tango for linking

Although obviously the analysis is not rigorous, it is one of the very few posts/articles I have seen that (properly) mentions the notion of hits/errors on the sac attempt versus unsuccessful attempts (K, force, popup, DP, etc.).

As I said in my comment in the “3-0 count sac attempt” thread, one of the keys to determining whether a sac attempt is prudent or not, is the hit/error rate (as well as the out/no advance rate).  This article has articulates that and has some nice rules of thumb.

And as you can infer, if the batter is not fast and a good bunter, he has no chance of achieving greater than a 20% hit/error rate, which is why generally non-pitcher batters who are not fast and good bunters should rarely if ever be bunting, unless perhaps the defense is not expecting a bunt.

One thing missing in this article and in most bunt analyses or comments (unless I am participating) is the game theory aspect.  Since where the defense is playing (whether they expect the bunt or not) greatly affects the hit/error rate on a bunt AND on a hit away, in all close cases (there the WE for the bunt and hit away is close to one another), the batter must sometimes bunt and sometimes hit away, without tipping the defense as to what they are doing.

Any manager that is unpredictable as far as his bunts and hit aways is usually doing a much better job than managers who are highly predictable whether they bunt a lot or a little…

Has “parametrize” become a normal part of the discourse? I ask because it seems like an awful lot of letters to twit.