THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

I don’t get it… isn’t Raines’ Hallworthiness pretty obvious to everyone, and certainly to people who would be reading this blog or THT?

Not criticizing you, I’m just a bit baffled—I hardly think (to reference another post) that an overrated player like Jim Rice needs to be elected just to prove a point and get Raines in.

You say in the article: “Tony Gwynn and Tim Raines, while somewhat comparable on a skill-by-skill basis, end up being extremely equal when looking at their impact to generating runs.” That’s for sure.  Using Runs Created from baseball-reference.com, Gwynn created 1,636 runs in his career; Raines created the exact same 1,636 runs in his career. Gwynn used 6,662 outs in creating his 1,636 runs; Raines used 6,670 outs in creating his 1,636 runs.  That’s downright spooky. Very different styles of play, with identical results (the two were born just a few months apart in time, as well .

One omission that jumped out at me when I read the article is the lack of any mentions of his defensive ability.  I understand Raines’ perceived flaw is how his offense stacks up against the HoF players, but given all of the recent talk about the importance of defense given improved metrics the omission left a void in the discussion of his career.

Was he “only” a LF because of a weak arm?  In deference to Dawson?  Did he possess great range in LF and make up for the lack of positional value with respect to being a CF by performing great in comparison to other LF?  What kind of reputation did he have at the time?

I think he’s a HoF so you don’t have to convince about the value of his offense and base running.  I’d just like to know more about the rest of his game.

For “Philly,” here’s a little data.  In the book Win Shares, Bill James has Tim Raines down for a fielding rate of 2.82 ws/1000 innings.  For comparison with other left fielders, Ted Williams 2.34, Minnie Minoso 2.76, Barry Bonds 2.26, Jim Rice 2.63, Billy Williams 2.36, Lou Brock 2.24, Rickey Henderson 2.42.  [These numbers may not demonstrate much except that Raines is not, by this metric, inferior in the field.] Compared to select other outfielders, Tony Gwynn 2.26, Andre Dawson 3.09, Willie Mays 4.11, Jimmy Piersall 4.50.

In another section of the book, James slaps a grade on Raines as an outfielder:  B-.  Again for comparison, Ted C, Minoso B-, Bonds C, Rice C+, B. Williams C, Brock C-, Rickey C, Gwynn C-, Dawson B, Mays A+, Piersall A+.

Tom, thanks for helping to lead the crusade.

Philly,

He moved to center the same year Dawson moved to right, but then he moved right back to left.  The TotalZone figures do no show him to be a great defensive leftfielder.  I don’t think Tango’s WOWY showed Raines to be a great leftfielder either.

It’s mildly surprising, as he certainly had centerfield speed.  Willie Wilson, another CF who played left, had incredible TotalZone numbers for LF.  Perhaps Raines didn’t stand out because teams used faster leftfielders then as compared to the pseudo-DH’s used today.  One of his competitors in left was Vince Coleman, another was Rickey.

Raines has more than enough offensive credentials to earn a spot in Cooperstown, best to concentrate on that as we don’t have evidence that he stood out defensively.

I think I had him as something like +5 plays per season, though that obviously includes all his down years.  In CF, I think I had him a slight positive (which would be at his peak).  Just going on memory.  He was probably a +10 to +12 plays at his peak, and then losing a couple of plays per year.

Dawson was better in CF than Raines was, especially if you include arm.  Dawson is really almost like two different players.  Bobby Orr retired, while Dawson played a different position with diminished fielding skills.

Willie Wilson was a wizard.