from Amazon
Monday, December 13, 2010
Preparing for FIELDf/x
Albert gives us one scenario:
You can already start imagining how FIELDf/x can inform the Red Sox about their outfield. For instance, let’s look at Crawford’s case. With a full FIELDf/x database on a server dynamic enough to display timed animation of fielding routes, we can draw a baseline for True Defensive Range (coined by Greg Rybarczyk). Looking at away teams, we can estimate how a leftfielder’s TDR is affected when playing at Fenway versus when playing at other ballparks. Distribution curves of varying TDR values can be plotted for leftfielders at Fenway versus that of leftfielders at other ballparks, giving us an idea of how Crawford’s TDR should be affected by Fenway if we look at his TDR comparables.
For Drew, we can improve our assessment of arm strength by accounting for 1st-to-3rd baserunning situations and runners thrown out at the plate while accurately categorizing every throw a right fielder makes at any ballpark. Those situations can be compared with would-be 1st-to-3rd baserunning situations that are hit to left field instead (where the runner at 1st doesn’t think twice about passing 2nd). In whatever method is chosen, throwing ability can be more accurately assessed, whether it’s comparing its value in LF and RF at Fenway or comparing rightfielders across baseball. The theory is then that Crawford’s plus-plus range and plus arm versus Drew’s plus range and plus-plus arm can be quantitatively assessed in order to figure out who is a better fit in LF or RF at Fenway.
This seems like a lot of work in order to make one decision, deciding on switching two corner outfielders who are both already good at defense. However, what can be taken away from this FIELDf/x thought experiment is the breadth of questions that FIELDf/x can be utilized to answer — if assembled and analyzed correctly.
There’s an old joke about a thrice-married woman whose gynecologist says to her: “I don’t understand—you’re on your third marriage, but you’re still a virgin. How is that?” The woman explains that her first husband was whisked away to war just after their wedding and was killed before they could consummate. Her second marriage was for money, to a much older man incapable of any physical activity whatsoever. Her current marriage is to an IBM salesman; all he does is sit on the edge of the bed, telling her how good it’s going to be. I don’t think FIELD FX is yet to the point of IBM in that joke. It may be getting there, though.