THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

After completing my DL database, this is one thing I really wanted and I have actually got some OK numbers for starting pitching.  I just now need to write the article. 

Also, I think it is kinda funny the Dodgers are ones looking into predicting injuries.  They have lost the most $$$ and % of salary over the time frame of my database. 

I will be able to give more information within the week as some of the work is supposed to be publish in a major publication.

The Times also ran an article on the increasing number of people to the DL over the last decade or so. I am waiting for a reply from them, before I run a piece giving possible explanations.

If you want us to peer review it, feel free to send it to us.

I may be missing something here.  Stan Conte is working closely with Dodger front office personnel on math formulas, he is using MLB Disabled List databases, which are resources that his employer provides to him and then he claims to be doing research on his “own time”.

Then there is a hint that this is something that belongs to him (and the UCLA statisticians) and they are the ones who can profit from this.

I wonder what the Dodgers legal council would do if Conte were to try to market and sell this information and formulas to other MLB teams.

vr, Xei

Xei: right-on.

This is similar to the Bratz / Mattel IP claim.  The guy who invented Bratz did so while working for Mattel.  He invented it on his own time.  Mattel sued, and now Bratz belongs to Mattel.

I would have to guess that he couldn’t prove the “his own time, his own resources”. 

I would have to figure that Conte is an employee, and any baseball-related work he does belongs to the Dodgers.

The statisticians though, without an agreement or payment for services, own whatever they create.  They are not a work-for-hire.  So, they are right that they own the recipe.

Tom—Sent a couple of emails on DL work I completed.

My first article on predicting injuries is about starting pitching (link on name also). 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/7/9/942326/predicting-time-lost-to-dl-for

If there are any other factors you can think of that can effect DL time let me know.  One limiting factor is that I have only data for 7 years so I don’t have many player’s entire careers so some check are impossible like was the player ever injured.  I had to limit injury selection to just the previous year or would 1/7th of my data just to look back 2 years.

In the NYTimes article it mentioned country of origin.  I am worried a little on sample size but will look into it.

When I divide out relievers, I plan on using 50 games as the minimum requirement.  And for batters I am thinking of using 300 AB.  Do these numbers sound reasonable?

Click on name for my response to the NY Times articles.  They weren’t too bad, but were missing some points.

Jeff,

Just got your emails (I don’t get to my yahoo account as often as my tangotiger.net account).  I’ll read them tonight and give you my comments, though it looks like I may have been too late.

Jeff/6 was marked for moderation and is now open.