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Friday, October 14, 2011
Poz on playoff structures of various leagues
Joe,
Great article on the playoff structures of the various leagues.
http://joeposnanski.si.com/2011/10/08/theres-only-one-october/
Let me point out a couple of things to consider:
1. Playing 162 games in MLB is equivalent to playing 82 games in NHL, in terms of establishing which team is better than another. Basically, the ordinal rankings are as meaningful. It takes 2 MLB games to tell you what it would take 1 NHL game, basically.
2. Soooo… in the NHL, you allow 16 teams in the playoffs, but they have to go through 4 playoff series of 7 games. The equivalent in baseball would be to allow 16 teams in the playoffs, and they’d have to play 4 playoff series of 13 or 15 games.
3. Given that you don’t want to have 13 and 15 game playoff series, nor 4 rounds, in MLB, you cut that number of games and series down. This is the tricky part:
4. How many rounds and games would you need so that the resultant World Series winner is actually the best team in MLB, as much as the resultant Stanley Cup winner is actually the best team in the NHL?
It basically becomes a probability question, one that I’ve not yet done but have always wanted to do.
Given the limited empirical results, it could very well be that having only 4 teams in the playoffs in a 7-game series is what gives the MLB regular season legitimacy, as the NHL gives it legitimacy with 16 teams.
It seems weird, but 16 teams in the NHL might be equivalent to 4 teams in MLB.
Tom
Nice analysis!
Maybe I’ll try simulating this if I have some time this weekend.
Tango, can I assume log5 works the same way for hockey as for baseball? The “true talent” is what changes with game length, right? The Log5 formula remains the same.