THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Over at espn.com, Neyer, Jayson Stark and Jim Caple have been debating the greatest lefty ever.  They narrowed the field to Grove, Spahn and RJ.  While Neyer seems to be casting his vote for Spahn, they seemed to have stopped short of declaring a winner.

Click link in name for the debate.

Good debate.

I’m glad that Chris Jaffe pointed out in the BTF thread on this topic that the late Dick Thompson wildly overstated the “Grove v. the Yankees” argument.  It has caused a really undue stigma around Grove, who has a forgotten great needs all the help he can get.  There was a poster on the FanHome history board back in the day who used that data and was 100% pro-Ferell--but I my recollection is that when you actually looked at the data, Grove’s opponents scored more runs than the league average.  I may be wrong on that detail, but the point is that the difference was nowhere near what the Ferrell crowd would have you believe.

From my 90% career value perspective, I have it:
1. Lefty
2. Spahn
3. Randy
4. Carlton
5. Plank
Honorable mention: Hubbell, Ford, Glavine, Pierce, Faber

Using the Lee Sinins encyclopedia, here are the top 20 lefties in runs saved above average per 9 IP (adjusted for park effects). Minimum 2000 IP. Through 2008. Of course, it is not fielding independent

Lefty Grove 1.53
Randy Johnson 1.19
Hal Newhouser 0.93
Whitey Ford 0.91
Carl Hubbell 0.89
Lefty Gomez 0.87
Sandy Koufax 0.85
Noodles Hahn 0.84
Rube Waddell 0.77
Jimmy Key 0.73
Toad Ramsey 0.70
Andy Pettitte 0.66
Ron Guidry 0.62
Tom Glavine 0.62
Thornton Lee 0.62
Billy Pierce 0.61
Chuck Finley 0.57
Warren Spahn 0.55
Howie Pollet 0.51
Eddie Plank 0.51

Here are the top 25 lefties, 2000+ IP in strikeout to walk ratio relative to the league average. The 211 for Grove means that his ratio was 2.11 times the league average. His was 1.91 while the average was .9

STRIKEOUTS/WALKS RATE PLAYER LEAGUE
1 Lefty Grove 211 1.91 0.90
2 Carl Hubbell 206 2.31 1.12
3 Noodles Hahn 197 2.41 1.22
4 Rube Waddell 189 2.88 1.52
5 Ron Guidry 184 2.81 1.52
6 Toad Ramsey 180 2.26 1.25
7 Randy Johnson 179 3.27 1.82
8 Harvey Haddix 175 2.62 1.49
9 David Wells 172 3.06 1.78
10 John Candelaria 171 2.83 1.65
11 Greg Swindell 171 3.08 1.80
12 Ken Raffensberger 164 1.80 1.09
13 Dutch Leonard 162 1.75 1.08
14 Sandy Koufax 159 2.93 1.84
15 Jon Matlack 156 2.38 1.52
16 Hooks Wiltse 155 1.93 1.25
17 Mickey Lolich 153 2.58 1.68
18 Ed Morris 153 2.44 1.60
19 Rube Marquard 152 1.86 1.22
20 Jesse Tannehill 151 1.97 1.30
21 Hal Newhouser 148 1.44 0.97
22 Lefty Gomez 147 1.34 0.91
23 Herb Pennock 143 1.34 0.93
24 Eddie Plank 143 2.06 1.44
25 Fritz Peterson 142 2.38 1.68

Now for HRs allowed. The 200 for Rixey comes from 92 being half of 184 (he allowed 92 while the average guy would have given up 184). so 92/184 = .5 and 1/.5 = 2. Then 2*100 = 200. But Rixey pitched in a very tough HR park. Notice how no one else from the debate is here. So is it Grove hands down?

HOMERUNS RATE PLAYER LEAGUE
1 Eppa Rixey 200 92 184
2 Ed Morris 170 42 71
3 Eddie Plank 155 41 64
4 Danny Jackson 152 133 202
5 Dutch Ruether 151 54 81
6 Andy Pettitte 146 230 335
7 Lefty Grove 143 162 232
8 Tommy John 143 302 431
9 Al Leiter 141 198 280
10 Hippo Vaughn 141 39 55
11 Rube Benton 139 52 72
12 Sam McDowell 138 164 226
13 Mike Hampton 135 187 252
14 Noodles Hahn 135 28 38
15 Whitey Ford 133 228 303
16 Tom Glavine 132 356 469
17 Frank Killen 132 55 72
18 Hal Newhouser 131 137 180
19 Rube Waddell 131 37 49
20 Fritz Ostermueller 130 105 137
21 Doc White 128 33 42
22 Johnny Vander Meer 128 100 128
23 Charlie Leibrandt 127 172 219
24 Curt Simmons 126 255 321
25 Earl Hamilton 124 43 53

Patriot wrote:

“I’m glad that Chris Jaffe pointed out in the BTF thread on this topic that the late Dick Thompson wildly overstated the “Grove v. the Yankees” argument.”

So I am glad about what Jaffe wrote, too. Because from 1925-29, Grove pitched alot against the Yankees

From 1925-29, Grove pitched 217 innings against the Yankees (out of 1,253). That is 17.3% of the total. His ERA against them was 3.94 (overall it was 3.09). 179 is 1/7 of 1,253, so Grove pitched 38 “extra” innings against the Yankees then. I think we would have to see his career totals against all teams to really know how much he was helped by avoiding the Yankees.

Go to

http://www.retrosheet.org/boxesetc/G/Lgrovl1010.htm

I have written several articles that show Grove may have been the best ever. I took park effects into account, normalized to the league average, used fielding independent ERA, and calculated wins above replacement level. I also looked at the best 5-year performances and Grove almost always comes out on top. In fact, he often had 2 distinct 5-year periods among the leader (and he seems to be well ahead of Koufax). Here are the articles:

The Best Five-Year Pitching Performances

Here are some more articles that support the cause for Grove. I had a hard time pasting all of this into one post while trying to hide the web addresses

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/7/17/9537/72813
The Best Five-Year Pitching Performances Since 1920 Based on Fielding Independent ERA

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/6/2/104946/4377
The Best Pitchers Since 1920

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/8/4/81713/24146
The All-Time Leaders in Park-Adjusted Pitching Wins Above Replacement Level

Grove appears to be the top lefty on this last one, although if 2006 through today were counted, Randy Johnson might be better. But through last year, Randy Johnson was still 133 runs saved behind Grove in about 100 more IP (adjusting for park effects and league average, from the Lee Sinins Complete Baseball Encyclopedia).

I did find a wins above replacement level through 2008 for all lefties with 2000+ IP. Using the runs saved against league average, then assuming a league that scores 4 runs per game, then calculating a pythagorean winning percentage, then games won (games are IP/9 and wins is pct*games), then subtracting the replacement from the pitcher. I used a .400 pct for the replacement.

Grove comes out on top. He saved 1.53 runs per 9 IP. With 4 runs per game, that means he allows 2.47. That comes out to a pyhtagorean pct of .723. He had 3940 IP. That means 437.78 games. Then he has 316.64 wins (or .723*437.78). The repalacement wins 175.11 (or .4*437.78). Grove is 141.53 above that.

Here are the leaders

Lefty Grove 141.53
Randy Johnson 120.81
Warren Spahn 100.85
Steve Carlton 95.34
Tom Glavine 90.08
Carl Hubbell 89.06
Whitey Ford 79.78
Eddie Plank 78.73
Eppa Rixey 78.52
Hal Newhouser 76.21
Tommy John 74.85
Jim Kaat 68.98
Rube Waddell 67.65
Billy Pierce 66.83
Chuck Finley 62.69
Jerry Koosman 61.55
Lefty Gomez 61.11
Wilbur Cooper 60.68
Frank Tanana 59.37
Larry French 58.25

It’s a good article, though the final line is inconsistent with the very good description of who participated in the “poll” which occurs at the front of the article.  It’s an internet poll, presented without a lot of context to a volunteer audience, of course it’s going to be a popularity contest. 

What Grove could use is a great biography.  With a cool title.  My two suggestions:  Slave to the Minor Leagues or Ace of the Lively Ball Era.  Of course, it will probably be called “Lefty” and half the people who put it down unbought will have thought it was about Carlton.

SABR published a Grove bio a few years back, but it’s certainly not great.  The title is “American Original” (or something like that), which also is not cool.