THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Sunday, December 18, 2011

Posnanksi’s readers are smart

By Tangotiger, 11:20 AM

I’ll put my money on 750 random Posnanski readers who choose to vote over 600 BBWAA writers:

86%    645    Barry Larkin
84%    629    Tim Raines
81%    605    Jeff Bagwell

61%    459    Alan Trammell
57%    430    Edgar Martinez
57%    427    Mark McGwire

28%    214    Larry Walker
22%    171    Rafael Palmeiro
21%    162    Dale Murphy
19%    147    Fred McGriff
19%    144    Jack Morris
16%    124    Lee Smith
15%    113    Bernie Williams
14%    105    Don Mattingly

2%    17    Juan Gonzalez
1%    11    Brad Radke
1%    9    Tim Salmon
1%    8    Rubin Sierra
1%    8    Tony Womack
0%    6    Terry Mulholland
0%    5    Javy Lopez
0%    4    Vinny Castilla
0%    3    Brian Jordan
0%    2    Bill Mueller
0%    1    Eric Young
0%    0    Jeromy Burnitz
0%    0    Phil Nevin

• Sabermetrics • Awards

#1 Matthew Bultitude (see all posts) 2011/12/18 (Sun) @ 15:18

What I learned from this exercise is that Javy Lopez was not nearly as good as my recollection of him indicates.

#2 Devon (see all posts) 2011/12/18 (Sun) @ 19:41

As of right now, with 897 voters, I see Trammel’s up a point & Edgar Martinez is up to 59%. I’m sad to see Larry Walker still hanging so low though at 30%. I think people hold Coors against him too much.

#3 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2011/12/18 (Sun) @ 21:37

Perhaps that, but also his low playing time. He has 8030 career PA. Starting in around 1960 or so, that would put him at 2nd lowest PA to be in the Hall if they vote him in. Lowest is Kirby Puckett, and he was a very iffy selection.

Duke Snider had around 8200 PA or so, and Al Kiner too. So, it’s a very tough threshold to clear.

According to BBWAA standards anyway.

Jim Edmonds is going to face the same situation with 7980 career PA.

#4 Devon (see all posts) 2011/12/18 (Sun) @ 21:41

I hate when you talk sense, but I can’t live without it. Maybe I’m giving his peak too much weight and not enough to his short career (which I hadn’t really thought about much). Do you think he might get in via the Veterans Committee?

#5 David (see all posts) 2011/12/19 (Mon) @ 00:10

The average voter as of now (1,027 ballots) voted for 5.98 players. As I recall, that’s very inline with the average for a BBWAA member. So people are getting over 75% based on consensus even sticking to a “normal” number of players/ballot, not just because all of Poz’s reader cast votes for 10 people. I had suspected that may have been the cause, but am glad to find it wasn’t.

#6 Devon (see all posts) 2011/12/19 (Mon) @ 08:54

Very interesting David. All this is making me think that the BBWAA should require their members to read Joe Posnanski.

#7 Tangotiger (see all posts) 2011/12/19 (Mon) @ 09:04

David: fantastic point!

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Sunday, December 18, 2011

Posnanksi’s readers are smart

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