THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Strasburg, he already has the TJS out of the way.

Even though you have to choose one, I would hope that this is not a political argument, where the choice is a 100/0 one. 

You can make a strong case for each of Kershaw and Strasburg, and a somewhat weaker case for Pineda and Bumgarner.

If we were to transport ourselves to Nov 1, 2015, it’s not a certainty that the guy you prefer will necessarily have led in WAR over the 2012-2015 years.

There’s uncertainty in everything.

If you were to make odds as to who would lead in WAR in 2012-2015, you might end up with:
30% Kershaw
25% Strasburg
20% Pineda
15% Bumgarner
10% Some other youngster born between 1988-1989

And all those numbers have their own uncertainty level of +/- 10%.

Something like that…

While I can envision scenarios in which any of the 4 pitchers outperforms the other 3 over the next 4 years, when it comes down to selecting one, I can’t get away from Kershaw.

Elite stuff and productive over 3+ years at the ML level (with improvement, most notably in his BB rate, each year). I wish his FB velocity hadn’t dropped a touch already (though it’s up from last year) but that’s not uncommon, and it hasn’t dropped so much as to be alarming.

Regarding injury rates, has anyone tracked the correlation between TJ surgery and subsequent arm problems? I’m curious if the idea that Strasburg already has his TJ surgery “out of the way” while someone like Kershaw is apparently a ticking a time bomb has any basis in anything other than wishful thinking.

One good way to think about it is: among all pitchers born 1988-1989, who has a better chance of leading in WAR from 2012-2015: Kershaw, or the rest of the field?  Strasburg, or the rest of the field?

I think it’s likely that “rest of the field” (born between 1988-89) is going to win.

So, then, you come up with odds.  Do you choose Kershaw and 2:1 odds, or rest of the field?  Maybe you need 3:1 odds to choose Kershaw over the rest of the field?

How about Kershaw+Strasburg or the rest of the field?  Is that even odds?

And so on.  Therefore, go through this exercise yourself, and come up with the odds.

1. Bumgarner- This guy is amazing. He started off rough, but finished real strong. Not really a huge difference between him and Kershaw other than Kershaw had good luck, while Bumgarner had bad luck. Kershaw had 18 starts allowing 1 earned run or less, Bumgarner 16. Both had 26 starts of 3 runs or less. This was Bumgarner’s age 21 year and Kershaw’s 23. According to your aging curve, Bumgarner has the better chance to improve, while Kershaw Peaked.

2. Strasburg- Lack of innings will kill him

3. Kershaw- See above. His injury will come.

Yeah, I gotta be honest, I don’t know how anyone could actually pick Michael Pineda in this post.  He has ~170 innings of Major League performance in which his FIP was 13 percent better than average and his xFIP was 12 better than average.  As a rookie, he was good but not great.  His velocity is good but he only has two Major League pitches right now.  He had arm problems in the minors. 

it’s like taking 80% of Strasburg’s upside and 99% of his risk.  I just can’t imagine any scenario where you’d look at this pool of pitchers and say - right now - I want Pineda.

#3.  The numbers have been run by Brian Cartwright and he just needs to put them into an article. You should have some good information within the month.

Dave: 110 of 111 people agree with you!

I had to put in Bumgarner and Pineda as they are probably the two best MLB pitchers that are younger than Strasburg.

I was originally going to do a 2-man ballot, but felt that giving two additional choices might better round out the ballot.  I was expecting 2:1 Kershaw to Strasburg, with some smattering of picks for Bumgarner and Pineda.

The responses I have is almost perfectly what I expected.  The point of the ballot is more to crystallize the opinions of people, and to use this against the eventual 2012 forecasts that we’ll be seeing across the web.  It gives a sanity check.

I was also thinking of doing a three man ballot of Kershaw, Strasburg, and Felix, since Felix is only 2 years older than these guys.  I might do that tomorrow.

If you were to project a 1.80 FIP for Strasburg in 150 IP, here is what his projected numbers would be:

200 K (12 K/9)
30 BB (1.8 BB/9)
8 HR (0.54 HR/9)

If you want less K’s, it would be:
180 K (11 K/9)
25 BB (1.5 BB/9)
7-8 HR (0.44 HR/9)

Are those numbers so out there that Strasburg couldn’t reach them?

Tango, I do have a question about your forecasting. When you look for 90th percentile, do you go after 90th percentile K, 90th percentile BB, 90th percentile HR, etc. Then use those numbers to estimate FIP and ERA?

pm: no!  The forecast is the overall forecast.  You “reverse” to get the components.

Would you do 90th percentile on HR, 2B, 3B, H, BB, SO, SB, or would you do 90th percentile on Runs Created?  If you do the former, you’d end up at 99th percentile in RC.

"Are those numbers so out there that Strasburg couldn’t reach them? “

I’m not sure who you are arguing with here..

Pedro, in 1999, in his first 150 innings: 205K, 29BB, 7HR.

Pedro, in 2000, in his first 154 innings: 204, 27, 12, respectively.

So, 200, 30, 8 is “attainable” in that it’s possible that someone is going to possibly match the best pitcher of all time (Pedro).  Setting that line as a 10% chance seems ok.

Tango, you asked who you would sign, not who would lead in WAR.

I would take Strasburg just for the impact and excitement for a team like the Jays that need a boost at the gate.

As much as I want to put Strasburg, I had to put Kershaw. He might be the only pitcher I’d sign over Strasburg today on a comparable long-term contract.