THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

After 42 votes, it’s 74/26 in favor of Verlander.

As a free agent, The Book readers think that Strasburg is worth roughly half way between Justin Verlander and Jair Jurggens.

Stephen Strasburg = Jair Verlander

Thanks guys, for your instincts.

These two polls have been fascinating to me, Tango.  Thanks a lot for doing this.  What does this mean as far as signing bonus goes for Strasburg?  Half way between Verlander and Jurggens?  Would the Nationals be wise to hold firm to that figure or give in to Boras’ demands?

Ignore my previous question.  I just realized the poll was asking who you’d sign as a free agent.  Sorry about that.

David, no problem, and I have a new blog post that answers your question anyway!

This one is obviously a little more of a no-brainer.  Verlander has had success in the majors and he has Strasburg like potential.

Would this have been the same answer if it wasn’t asked about 2008 Verlander rather than 2009 Verlander?

Right, I’m looking for realistic limits here, and I seem to have found it at somewhere north of Jurggens and south of Verlander.

The other one I was considering was Felix Hernandez, as he’s only two years older than Strasburg, has the potential, and has been pitching in MLB it seems forever.  I figured Verlander provided a better contrast. 

Compared to Felix, I don’t see how anyone would take Strasburg. 

If someone wants to offer another suggestion as to who is between Verlander and Jurggens and in his early to mid-20s, feel free.

These are other top young pitchers I considered:
Cain, Matt
Danks, John
Jimenez, Ubaldo
Kazmir, Scott
Lester, Jon
Litsch, Jesse
Santana, Ervin
Volquez, Edinson

Alot of those I dropped because of injuries or bad starts that would cloud one’s judgement.

I dismissed these pitchers as already being better than Verlander:
Billingsley, Chad
Hamels, Cole
Hernandez, Felix
Lincecum, Tim

Verlander is running away with it, 84/16 after 74 votes.

I’m open to running one last poll as a way to find someone who is better than Jurggens but worse than Verlander and is young enough.

This is probably a stupid question, but why do you keep spelling Jair’s last name “Jurggens”?  Both Fangraphs and B-R list it the way I’ve always seen it, “Jurrjens”.  Is there an inside joke I’m not aware of?

I’ve seen 4 different spellings of his name.  If someone wants to make a 100% definitive claim, please do so.

Why not go with B-R’s spelling (Jurrjens)?  That’s pretty much where people are going to be looking up info on him. That’s also the spelling by MLB.com.

Tango:
I don’t mean to be a smart ass, but will these do?
http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0d10b5DeIG7A9/610x.jpg
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/46/Jair_Jurrjens.jpg

Eddo, I LOVE it!

Nothing like definitive proof.

Google hits for these search terms
“Jair Jurrjens”: 221,000
“Jair Jurjjens”: 1,980
“Jair Jurrgens”: 1,250
“Jair Jurjens” : 483
“Jair Jurggens”: 296 (including me)
“Jair Jurgens” : 264

The Wisdom of the Crowd has spoken as well.

If these pitchers were free agents in 2005, which one would you pay the most for, on a six-year deal?
Roy halliday (b. 1977)
Justin Verlander (b. 1983)