THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Interesting.  After 25 votes, it’s 15 for Strasburg and 10 for Jurggens.

I estimate that to mean that Strasburg should get a deal about 1MM more per year.

It’s Jurrjens, and I’d take him on a 6-year deal simply because I perceive there to be much less risk.

I’m thinking that I would take Jurrjens out of what I think is less risk (already performing on the major league setting), but I think there’s something to be said with the buzz that Strasburg would bring.

Wow am I surprised at these results.  Give me the guy who’s already shown the ability to get MLB hitters out, please.

I loved Jurrjens last year, but it seems that he’s taken a step backward this year.  His K:BB ratio is below 2, and he’s allowing more flyballs then grounders.  The only reason that he’s been able to be good is that is HR/FB ratio is insanely low. 

That being said, he is a 23 year old pitcher with a career 3.74 FIP.  Strasburg has never pitched in the majors.

I can’t believe these results either. It appears that The Book readers are also prone to buying the hype? I’ll take the 23 year-old who’s found success in the majors any day of the week.

Those who are voting Strasburg, what’s your logic?

Our logic is that we think Strasburg will have more value over the next six years than Jurrjens.  Of course it’s just a guess.  But just because Strasburg has been dominating college baseball and Jurrjens has been pitching well in the Pros for little over a year, doesn’t mean that Strasburg is worth less over the next six years.

Obviously, there’s a higher risk to reward ratio with Strasburg, but I voted for him because I believe he has a much higher ceiling than Jurrjens does.

I think back to Mark Prior and hope that Strasburg’s arm holds together long enough. Strasburg also has gone through failure and works hard in training. I would view that as a plus in his make up.

The ones voting for Jurjjens are the ones who have explaining to do, honestly.  They either care way too much about small sample size performances, care way too little about what a pitcher throws, or haven’t looked at Jurrjens HR/FB rates recently. 

This isn’t even close.  It’s Strasburg 100 times out of 100.

I don’t anyone in the pro-Jurrjens would deny that Strasburg has a higher upside. But four to a flush has a higher upside than a pair of kings.

Victor Wang did a thing about pitching prospects and found that top ten pitching prospects were worth about the same and the next 15.

Prospect Value, Top 10 Pitching Prospects
Bust: -.03, 28%
Contributor: .51, 43%
Everyday player: 1.44, 21%
All star: 2.33, 4%
Super star: 3.67, 4%
Net Present Value: $22.12 million

Prospect Value, Top 11-25 Pitching Prospects
Bust: -.03, 31%
Contributor: .43, 36%
Everyday player: 1.31, 17%
All star: 2.48, 13%
Super star: 3.56, 3%
Net Present Value: $23.49 million

If Strasburg is twice as good as the average top ten pitching prospect then he is still has (very optimistically) only about a 20% chance of being a star (and therefore better than Jurrjens). And generously, a 35% chance of being worse.

In my opinion, Jurrjens is the bird in the hand option. I think saying that the normal rules don’t apply to this guy is being a fan/scout and not a sabermatrician.

The thing with Victor’s rankings is that assume injuries play apart in the “bust” percentages.  However, going forward, Jurjjens has just as good of a chance of getting injured as Strasburg.

I know I’m not half as educated as many of the posters here when it comes to doing translations to the majors for college players, but is it really that clear he will do great out of the gate?

Jurrjens has had minor league and major league experience (298 innings worth) and has been above average at each level.

Strasburg, as amazing as he may be, doesn’t have any of that. How many players dominating in the minor leagues have struggled their first few seasons?

Buchholz for instance, has had 368 innings of 4.3:1 K/BB, and 0.68 HR/9 in the minors.

In his 98.2 innings of major league work, he’s under 2 K/BB with over 1 HR/9 spread over 2 seasons.

Jair Jurrjens is getting major league hitters out now. Strasburg isn’t. Jurrjens was 3.8 WAR in 2008, he’s already 1.7 in 2009. Strasburg, if he bombs the first year or two, has to make that up in the next 4. It would be one Hell of a vote of confidence, in my book, to pick Strasburg given the information there.

If there is something I’m missing, please share it, because I just don’t see it but it looks like plenty of intelligent people do.

Jurrjens has been underestimated his “whole” (very short) career. The Tigers gave him away and had nothing much left on their pitching staff last year. He’s not impressive to watch. He’s not a big K guy.  But he’s incredibly heady for a young pitcher.

Ok, you guys spoke loud and clear: 130 votes, 65/35 in favor of Strasburg.  Give me a minute, and I’ll put up a new poll with another pitcher.

Ok, now it’s Strasburg or Verlander:

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/poll_strasburg_or_verlander/