THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

I voted for ‘even’ . ERA says Carpenter was better, and I presume DIPS says Halladay was better.

But the 1st inning triple and double that allowed the game’s only run were clean shots off Halladay; the fielding had nothing to do with it.

OTOH, I recall a great play by Furcal which saved a hit off Carpenter. With a man already on base, who knows what would have happened had that gone thru for a hit.

Right, there were alot of fielding plays in this game.  The catchers were involved as well (bunts, hits off pitcher, etc).  Halladay had the bases loaded and worked himself out of it.

If you were to go through it play by play (which I hope someone does do, because this would be very instructive), I’m not sure who would end up on top here.

xFIP aside, both had some shots caught at the track too.  Holliday hit that one ball about 405 to dead center, for example.  Utley and Ibanez had some near misses too.

Any of the middle 3 options seems reasonable (I chose evenly matched) but to say either one pitched significantly better is a hard sell.

I asked the various luminaries to give me their “component” ERAs.

Matt Swartz was the first to reply.  SIRA (the RA9 version of SIERA) came back with:
3.24 Doc
3.31 Carp

I must say, that’s impressive!

***

FIP:
1.83 Doc
2.53 Carp

***

The 4 versions of Game Score:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/game-score-and-crowd-sourcing/

Game Score 1: Runs Allowed
40 + (6.4 * IP) – (10 * R)

81 Doc
98 Carp

Game Score 2: K/BB
40 + (0.4 * IP) + 3 * (SO – BB)

61 Doc
53 Carp

Game Score 3: FIP
40 + (2.5 * IP) + FIPcore

71 Doc
69 Carp

Game Score 4: Linear Weights
40 + (8.4 * IP) + LWTScore

74 Doc
101 Carp

So, depending where you fall in the Doc v Carp matchup will tell you which of the 4 metrics you prefer.

A pure simple average of the 4:
72 Doc
80 Carp

Since there seems to be a slight bias toward thinking that Doc pitched better, that means those people prefer the K/BB numbers more.

I should note that Carp pitched 9 innings to Doc’s 8.  I think that might make a big deal.

Then again, Doc faced one more batter than Carp did.

That slight bias toward Halladay might also be people taking into account the quality of the opposing hitters. I don’t know how much it matters, but Doc likely did have a tougher task facing the Cardinals line up.